Forum Archive Index - April 2002

["Ben Dutton" <bendutton@sharechat.co.nz>]

Hi Barry,

Snoopy has made some good points.  Just to expand a bit on the issue of
AAPT, the division isn't looking too healthy here in Australia.  They've had
quite a few job cuts and a person who used to work for them tells me that
morale is pretty low (as it is in any company that retrenches).  AAPT
doesn't really have any points of differentiation in the market except on
price, but continued discounting is not what is going to make Telecom money
in the long term.

In saying that Telecom NZ Australia seems to be making some good inroads
with corporate clients, but this isn't necessarily going to help the
situation AAPT is in.

Snoopy - I noted with interest your comment "the sacking of Gattung".  You
must not be impressed with her management of the company.  Why?

Best Regards

Ben Dutton
(Disc. do not hold TEL).

----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Tuesday, April 02, 2002 11:07 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Tel


> Hi Barry,
>
> I share your cynicisim about TEL.  Yes there are some NZ compnaies
> that have done well across the ditch.  Michael Hill and Hallensteins
> spring to mind.   But I do agree that it is very difficult to see an
> acceptable rate of return ever coming out of AAPT.
>
> I think you have to consider TEL as a potential recovery share.   It
> is very difficult to pick when a share bottoms, but I would hazard a
> guess that around $4.20 is as low as you will ever see it go.  The
> dividend yield is simply too good to allow it to drop below that
> level IMHO.   If you could buy in at around $4.60 that would be
> within 10% of the low point.  I must admit, I'd be tempted to 'top
> up' if it got that low again.  I think TEL has become a bottom drawer
> share for the moment.   You won't see any major action either
> up or down.  Buying in at around $4.60 would give you a yield of
> around 7% fully imputed.   That sounds like quite an attractive place
> to put money instead of in a cash deposit at the bank, don't you
> think?   And if the share price drops below $4.60, so what?   You can
> afford to wait until it rises in price again with all those dividend
> cheques rolling in.
>
> The recovery should come with the abandonment of AAPT and the sacking
> of Gattung.  TEL will be back to the core business then, which will
> be the trigger that the share price needs to soar.  Give it a couple
> of years.  Can you wait that long?  SNOOPY
>
> discl: Hold TEL
>
>
>
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
> Message sent by Snoopy
> e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> ----------------------------------
> "You can tell me I'm wrong twice,
> but that still only makes me wrong once."
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
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