Forum Archive Index - March 2002

["Chris Morgan" <actionsports.napier@xtra.co.nz>]

1.  Yes my Crystal Ball says $8 - $9, File this email away for future
reference
 2. Accept your point re fund managers
 3. Competition, while interesting I think AKL will continue to dominate for
years to come, I was in  Hamilton a few months ago and found it to be
thriving, also heading north in its growth. Hamilton I believe will become
an important airport over the coming years, though I still do not feel that
AKL has anything to fear from this.
Thanks for your comments

Regards

Morgy
----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Thursday, March 21, 2002 9:10 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] AIA View point


> Hi Morgy,
>
>
> You asked for comments.
> >
> >
> >My vote is as follows: Longterm investment has upside with new
> >cornerstone shareholder with airport experience. Naturally they will
> >want to add value & get a better return than what they actually paid
> >for.
> >
> >
>
>
> Yes, but 'wanting' an improved performance is no guarantee that it
> will happen
>
>
>
> >
> >
> >Every new investor in a business thinks they can add value ,
> >
> >
>
>
> Not necessarily.  If you are an index fund, or an Airport
> Infrastructure fund, for instance, you may very well be buying a
> business because it is there, and a certain size.  There is no
> presumption the investment will increase in value.
>
>
>
> >
> >
> >particualrly if you are specialising in that industry or they would
> >not buy Short term, I believe the sentiment will run out shortly
> >after the new investment takes it share. This will be the time to
> >build a stake assuming that all fundamentals are once again checked
> >& a check of the charts is made. I see this as a $8 - $9 stock
> >within 3 years.
> >
> >
>
>
> You have seen the forecasts for 8 years into the future?  At any
> given time a share price is reflecting conditions 2 to 5 years
> into the future.  What 'fundamentals' are you talking about?
>
> Your comments seem to indicate that because the share price has
> doubled in the last three years it will do so again.  Extrapolation
> like that is not a valid forecasting technique.  The brunt of the
> September 11th air route contraction seems to have been borne by
> Christchurch.  Why do you think that as air travel increases again,
> most of that increase won't come through Christchurch?
>
>
> >
> >
> >Remember that this share will never become a commodity stock as it
> >has unique assets without competition.
> >
> >
>
>
>
> You are arrogant to assume there is no competition.  There is
> Hamilton International Airport just down the road  (think Gatwick vs
> Heathrow).  Tourists can come and go through Christchurch.  AIA is
> certainly in a strong position, - but no competition?  SNOOPY
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
> Message sent by Snoopy
> e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> ----------------------------------
> "You can tell me I'm wrong twice,
> but that still only makes me wrong once."
>
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