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| From: | "Morgy" <morgy40@xtra.co.nz> |
| Date: | Thu, 21 Mar 2002 00:05:23 +1200 |
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Re, Ganors article, as he
has pointed out on many occasions & I think as recently as the last article
on AIA. Just about every investment that a local body, council or government in
NZ has sold has gone on to make mega money for the switched on investors who
bought it. The NZH on Saturday or possibly the Dominion, ran articles on how
airports where being snapped up around the world, the article I read also
compared some of these to AIA which seemed to compare very favourably with the
upside to this investment, it has key assets such as , primary entry
point to the main population market, captive passenger market for the shops to
sell to, It is the landlord, the possibility of a new hotel going up giving
it more captive customers. A bucket of cash in landing rights each year.
Just remember that this place was making buckets of cash long before
privatisation.
Also & most importantly
the type of investment group looking to snap up the holding will be a specialist
in Airports & you can be sure they will be frothing at the mouth to pick up
another cheap NZ asset using our cheap currency to further enhance the
cheapness of this valuable asset.
Politicians in my
experience work on cycles of re-election & definitely have short term goals, this is logical as
they know they are only a ballot box away from being discarded back to the non
entities that they are. They will never see this amount of cash again & of
course most of them will be out of office before the full ramifictions of there
crime are exposed.
The trick is to work out if
the smart money is getting out or in. I read a great article on a financial site
that said that by the time general TV & press where covering a stock it
was time to get out & take the stupid money while it was still
upside.
My vote is as follows:
Longterm investment has upside with new cornerstone shareholder with airport
experience. Naturally they will want to add value & get a better return
than what they actually paid for. Every new investor in a business thinks
they can add value , particualrly if you are specialising in that industry or
they would not buy
Short term, I believe the
sentiment will run out shortly after the new investment takes it share. This
will be the time to build a stake assuming that all fundamentals are once again
checked & a check of the charts is made. I see this as a $8 - $9 stock
within 3 years.
Remember that this share
will never become a commodity stock as it has unique assets without
competition.
All your comments will be
appreciated.
Regards
Morgy
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