Forum Archive Index - February 2002

["nick" <helmett@xtra.co.nz>]

         Well firstly your dividend figure is too dated. Transrail have
stopped dividends during the restructuring. If you want to buy for short
term speculation there are probably better alternatives, although the MACD
has just crossed and stochastic is on the rise, directional movement has
crossed but only giving a weak signal at the moment.  The reason i believe
the stock will do well from a sharemarket perspective is that the share
overhang has now gone, all the major brokering firms seem to be taking
positions and all seem fairly bullish about the stock.  Check out yahoo
finance  trh.nz  in search and look at the brokers recommendations  its
somemthing like 7 buys and no holds or sells.   The stock was also quite
happy in the 4.00 range until news of a share sale started to leak out, now
thats finished with the stock is well undersold especially when consiering
how far down the restructuring track (no pun intended_)  they are.  There is
also likely to be more disposals announced soon, think wellington corridor
next.    Dont let the recent .25c rise put you off buying they are still
well undervalued now that the share register is looking more healthy

 Nick



> yo nick helmett!
> thanks for the reasons behind the trh buy.  the 'increase in log exports'
> advantage is beyond my timeframe, but the benefits from the restructure
> should be quicker.
> however, am balking at the pe: 'twixt 84 and 97 ...  with the div between
> 2.2 and 4.2%, this is not something i'd normally look at.
> my broker concurs with the true value ~$5.50, but i'm not really
convinced,
> and feel that if i do buy in, it will be for a short time only, and timed
> on TA signals.
> good luck, jefley
>
>
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