Forum Archive Index - February 2002

["Chris Castle" <c.castle@paradise.net.nz>]

Nick - have a decent look the stocks I mentioned. I didn't just think of a
few company names to give you - I see all of those stocks as worth a very
serious look as INVESTMENTS not trades. I can assure you that I've had a
pretty good look at them already. The other point of my post was to
challenge your "this market is stuffed" approach which is IMHO not correct
at this time.

Cheers



----- Original Message -----
From: "nick" <helmett@xtra.co.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Monday, February 18, 2002 6:05 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Wheres the value?


>      Thx for the replies,  snoopy first. I have held all those stocks,
> buyoing them
> at the prices i mentioned , selling all for nice profits, i cant agree
that
> they still
> represent good value. Look at contact, sure they have been valued higher
but
> a few years with good lake levels is going to lead to static dividends and
> share price.
>      Rbd I agreeare a good yield and prob good for 10% a year, but will be
> cheaper
> at some point this year. Sky city has had a great run but isnt doing so
> flash lately
> ie Force.
>          Chris , thx for the tips will have a look into them. As for ITC
you
> have more faith than i.
> Maybe good for a few trades but an investment?  Some of the others look
> interesting, i have had
> an eye on kirk for a few weeks.
>    Nick
>
>
> > Hi nick,
> > >
> > >
> > >Looks very hard to find anything worth buying at the moment. A
> > >year or two ago we had top quality stocks languishing at cheap
> > >prices, ie Restaurant brands 1.00 , contact energy 2.50 auckland
> > >airport 2.50 Fletcher building 2.00, wrigtsons .45  Nufarm 3.50 the
> > >list goes on     Now on the other hand its difficult to recommend
> > >anything with much confidence.
> > >
> > >
> >
> > Looks like you're investing in the rear view mirror Nick.  My
> > first motto of investing is always look forwards.  I'd
> > hesitate to call Fletcher Building and Wrightson's 'quality shares'
> > at any price in my terms, but I'll comment on some of the others.
> >
> > 'Contact Energy' has only just been independently valued at around
> > $4.14 minimum value, and you can certainly buy it for less than that
> > today.  Sure it is not $2.50, but when it was $2.50 none of us
> > realized just how good it was.  That energy crisis winter last year
> > showed up the weaknesses in the other listed energy shares.  When I
> > thought I was going to be forcibly bought out of Contact, I had a
> > look at Trustpower, Natural gas, Powerco and decided that even at
> > $4.14 Contact was still cheap compared to them.  So at around $3.70,
> > I don't think you could say Contact was a bad buy.   I am sure that
> > Edison Mission will ensure that all shareholders continue to get good
> > dividends out of CEN too.
> >
> > 'Restaurant Brands' is on a competitive dividend yield now, even at
> > around $2.   Uncertainty as to where the Pizza Hut and Starbucks
> > brands are going has been sorted out.  And all those property sales
> > have primed Restaurant Brands up to be in a very strong cash
> > position.  So although it isn't as 'cheap' any more, it's not exactly
> > 'bad value' either as the downside risk has been reduced as I see it.
> >
> > 'Sky City Entertainment' is looking a riskier proposition than at
> > this time last year.  But we do have another America's cup year
> > coming up.  That was good for business in Auckland the last time
> > around and I think SKC could even withstand the collapse of one of
> > their more risky ventures without cutting their dividend.
> > Furthermore the SKC dividend today is far better than having your
> > money in the bank.
> >
> > Then of course there is dear old Telecom.   It is increasingly
> > looking like they have made yet another hash of getting into
> > Australia.  But the local market is still good for them.  And thanks
> > to the share price halving over the last 18 months the dividend yield
> > is still good!
> >
> > Mind you I'm not saying that all of these won't go lower.  Indeed,
> > with a rise in interest rates these income shares all have the
> > potential to be sold off.  But I'm picking the underlying growth in
> > their core businesses will mitigate any price falls - and I can't say
> > the same about all of those listed property companies on similar
> > yields!
> >
> > Of course none of RBD, SKC, CEN or TEL will 'get you rich quick', but
> > even if the global environment does go bad, so what for these four?
> >
> > NZrs will still make phone calls and use energy.   Maybe they'll
> > spend less time in sit down restaurants and buy cheaper takeaways
> > (good for Restaurant Brands).   And the America's Cup isn't going to
> > be cancelled, which should make up for any fall off in local
> > gambling (steady as she goes for SKC).
> >
> > All in all I have no great wish to be "cashed up" as far as my NZ
> > portfolio goes.  I think any funds I have in the above are better
> > where they are rather than in the bank. SNOOPY
> >
> > discl: Hold CEN, RBD, TEL and SKC
> >
> >
> > PS Don't follow Nufarm closely, but wasn't there some talk a couple
> > of years ago that their true value was considerably more than $3.50?
> > Perhaps a NUF shareholder could tell us why they are still apparently
> > quite cheap?
> >
> > Also I can't help but agree that AIA looks expensive at $3.90.  But
> > with takeover activity a possibility, maybe the high price is
> > justified?
> > ---------------------------------
> > Message sent by Snoopy
> > e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> > on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> > ----------------------------------
> > "You can tell me I'm wrong twice,
> > but that still only makes me wrong once."
> >
>
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