hell guys, arent we getting all gooey eyed about that great NZ company FRU.
owned by bains out of Oz
the nz public was lied (over -optimistic forecasts if it actually got pulled up in front of the securities commission) to repeatedly by the management as they contrived an easy exit for bains (no infor at the beginning until it was obvious there was no trade sale at that time, bullshit forecasts after that when mgmt thought they would have to do a 2po).
fru would never have remained in nz, as soon as the profit base in oz or the uk (ha ha) eclipsed the base in NZ - they would have been off.
the "good of nz" never came into it.
regardless the company is worth more in the hands of Danome than stand alone - by itself its worth about $1.90 (using realistic growth and MARGIN assumptions and the cost of marketing the product- do you relly believe that 50% margins are sustainable - look at freshup for the destiny of a mature brand)
however there are lots of arb guys in the stock now so:
if you arent there - dont go there, buy as the arb guys drop the price if the deal fails. If it succeeds you dint miss much.
if you are there - take the price now and re-invest in other stocks you like before the herd start to re-invest if the french succeed, or buy back if it fail.
there is little chance that damone will walk - the brands are worth more in their distribution structure.
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