Forum Archive Index - January 2002

["andrew cottingham" <arco@adinfinitum.co.nz>]

Now everybody, - don't put all your money in FFS just yet. I may have an
even bigger wooden rocket up my sleeve.
PS. Dick - I'm not saying you are wrong - because you may be right.

----- Original Message -----
From: <ichi@ihug.co.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Wednesday, January 09, 2002 3:50 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] What's Your Favourite Share


> Dick O'Connor wrote:
> >
> > If I may suggest it, what say we talk about success for a while.
> > How about each person naming a favourite share
>
> OK, I'll give it a go.  At the moment my favourite NZ share is
> Fletcher Forest (FFS).  Don't laugh.  It's like a rocket, waiting
> to blast off.  Even at current timber prices, FFS is hugely
> undervalued.  And those timber prices have considerable upside.
>
> Yeah, I know there's a lot of negative talk about the 'wall of wood'
> and 'global warming' and decreasing demand and so on.  But Fletchers
> has always been very cyclical.  Even before they split in four, they
> had big swings between highs and lows.  When Fletchers was low,
> there was a lot of negative sentiment about the company, but when
> prices turned (as they always do) it was flavour of the month.  We
> saw the same thing with Wrightson (another mare from the Fletcher
> stable).  When it fell to 30 cents, it became my favorite share.
> A no-brainer, really.  As a debt-free company, WRI could wait out
> the rural downturn and be ready to blast off when conditions improved.
>
> I now see FFS in the same situation.  An established company in
> a cyclical primary industry, with competent management and little
> financial pressure.  Sitting on a low, waiting to blast off.  I
> can't say that it will blast off this year, or even next.  But its
> day will surely come.
>
> DISCLAIMER:
> ~~~~~~~~~~~
> I hold FFS.  In fact, it's my biggest holding (although less than 10%
> of my total portfolio).  That's the best advice I can give:  no matter
> how attractive the investment opportunity, don't put too many eggs in
> that basket.  I can't believe the number of people who (apparently)
> take their 'life savings' and invest it in one lump.  Still, I suppose
> if it goes sour there's always Social Welfare or the Holmes show.
>
>
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