Forum Archive Index - January 2002

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

I wouldn't agree the economic environment you portray Nick is that clearcut,
nor that because NZ stocks are on a bit of high that they need to go down.
This time last year the media commentators were saying that the NZ dollar
would "bounce back" irrespective of the fundamentals like a huge current
account deficit. It didn't - it went down 7% according to media reports.
And you can't say we haven't had a good spring and summer for the farmers.
Why, for the first time in living memory there are no recorded farmer moans
in the newspaper. Usually its a either the terrible drought/sudden cold snap/
continual rain causing facial eczema and footrot/too hot.
This year - nothing. Its amazing.

Inflation continues low, interest rates will take at least one more cut.
NZ's coy ratios of gross dividend yield and p/e continue to be much
better than overseas. Imputation credits continue to offer NZ resident
investors advantages over investing overseas. Even better we haven't 
heard from RIL for ages. ;-)

So I don't necessarily see NZ shares as going down, I think they will
continue to go up, at least for some months. 


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