Forum Archive Index - January 2002

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

I think Geoff and Chris have hit the nail on the head and Geoff's discussion on 
the fundamental
factors that influence STU's value (which may go in a different direction from 
its price - but not
in the long term) is particularly good.
Take NZR which I used to hold a substantial amount of.....they now provide a 
two monthly report to
the market, the last one said that a substantial portion of Marsden Pt will be 
shut down over the
summer affecting profitability.
Because of their complicated output pricing arrangement they are not really a 
New Zealand share.
The refining margin is set by reference to refining margins in East Asia which 
are totally volatile
and very competitive with an excess of capacity. This also means that unlike an 
NZ company you are
at the mercy of overseas exchange fluctuations as well. 
However apparently the horoscope charts say that NZR is on an uptrend and 
therefore a momentum buy.
It reports about 22 February and the market seems to be speculating it will 
again pay a $2 fully
imputed dividend. I hope they are right for their own sakes, my own 
requirements are for more sober
analysis and reliability.
The international situation is of recession and falling oil demand. The 
historical data for NZR
shows incredible volatility over the years down to some very low lows. 
Maybe its an alternative to a bungy jump but good luck from here on in, chaps.  



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