Forum Archive Index - December 2001

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

sorry phaedrus, I'm not being intentionally rude, I actually only read a few of 
the sharechat
postings as I only have time to look once or twice a week - partly because the 
family is on the
phone so much and our other phone is in the flat we split off. Basically I 
think any extrapolation
of a trend into the future is probably wrong, when I did econometrics and the 
massive model of the
economy which covered every variable was thought to be able to foretell the 
future the actual
results showed the best any model could do was very roughly go six months 
forward and quite
possibly not in the right direction. Even so we do need to make some guesses 
for the future and
simpler they are the less likely they are to go off beam. Charting techniques 
like head and
shoulders graphs have the disadvantage that if a pattern is discerned then the 
day traders will
disrupt it make a profit anyway. I haven't read Mary Holm's article and I may 
well disagree with
the extrapolations she has done.
On the other hand value analysis is looking at ratios of hard data, p/e, div 
yield, net assets &
plus the more intangible aspect of quality of management as well as analysing 
the type of good and
service and the market being sold into. 
To me any charting prediction is liable to go off the rails tomorrow because 
these factors haven't
been taken into a/c.
I gather many if not most sharechatters are retired and are able to concentrate 
on sharechat
whereas I'm just snatching moments. I'm full time at Statistics NZ as an 
economist and I was out
tonight playing badminton and out last night at a barbecue until 10.30 for 
example. I've only just
got hold of Buffett's Fortune article that Dick O'Connor & are keen I read but 
no time to read it
yet! When I do have a day's leave I get into sharechat then. An interesting 
forecasting example is
Demography - the Chch City Council extrapolated population trends away into the 
future without
looking at the SNZ scientific forecasts showing growing stagnation and then 
decline. Result the CCC
has okayed lots of real estate developments around Chch which is now lowering 
existing house
prices.
regards,
Hugh
----------
> From: Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>
> To: Sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> Subject: [sharechat] Mary is into TA
> Date: Tuesday, 4 December 2001 9:30
> 
> Hugh,
>      I too consider myself a sceptic, and would like to join the NZ Sceptics 
>Society - I have
read some of their articles, and found them interesting and thought provoking. 
Could you please
post some contact info? 
>   Your views on the world economic problems, and how best to address them 
>made good sense to me -
discounting the patronising xenophobia. You certainly have answers to the big 
questions. You do not
appear to have any answers to the small questions, though. Do you realise that 
you have never
answered ANY of the queries that I have posted to you on Sharechat? The last 
one was :-
>  Please explain why when Mary Holm uses charts to look for trends "All she's 
>doing is looking at
past hard data illustrated as a graph", but when I or anyone else does EXACTLY 
THE SAME THING we
are "examining chicken entrails" or using "mumbo jumbo charting".
>  These are quotes from your own posts Hugh - all I am doing is pointing out 
>an apparent
inconsistency. Why won't you respond?
>        Regards,
>                  Phaedrus.
> 
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