Forum Archive Index - November 2001

[Phaedrus <Phaedrus@techemail.com>]

Robin,
       My approach seems bizarre to you because we are focussing on different 
things. For you, some of the factors influencing this trade are :-
(1) What you paid. ($1.05)
(2) Your target price. ($1.34)
(3) How this stock has treated you in the past. (Well)
(4) What you would buy if you sold. (Don't know)
(5) Fundamentals (or other reasons for your wanting to buy at $1.20)
  To me, these are all irrelevant. With a ternd-following approach, there is 
only one question. Within the time frame that I chose to trade, is this stock 
going up or down? If it is going up, I want a slice of the action. If it is 
going down, I want out. 
  THL is in a long-term downtrend. It is in a short-term downtrend. The 
medium-term uptrend has ended. The price would only have to fall a few cents 
for there to be a medium-term downtrend as well. It all looks very bearish to 
me. I have no doubt whatsoever that this reflects the state of the tourism 
sector generally at the moment. 
  Robin, note that I am not saying that I am right and you are wrong. I am just 
explaining why anyone with a trend-following system would not want to be in THL 
right now. If everyone thought as I do, there would be no-one to sell to and 
get out at $1.20! 
  If I had actually taken this trade (I hadn't) I would be very happy with it - 
regardless of what THL may or may not do in the future. 
          Regards,
                   Phaedrus.

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