Forum Archive Index - October 2001

["Peter" <pmaiden@xtra.co.nz>]

Stephen - interesting points on CAH. One day (like Contact) its major shareholder IP will do something with their interest. Because of this being a possibility (one day) is one of the few reasons why many shareholders hang in there.

 

I don't think I'll ever buy CAH shares. However for some obscure reason (maybe in seeing how many more years they can continue to make so little money on the $5B or so of invested capital) I keep a spreadsheet going of CAH performance. Give CAH credit in reporting quarterly figures - something others could take up in NZ.

 

I'll update my rolling four quarter totals graphs tomorrow and expect to see the revenues line going up and the earnings line going down.

 

June quarter sales in excess of $969M will see the revenues line go up but anything less than $86M in earnings will see the rolling four quarter total fall below $113M (on revenues of about $3.8B). No matter what the result I can't see it being better than the September 2000 quarter result. Operating margins getting pretty thin.

 

Maybe at the bottom of a cycle and due for a rebound - buts that's what been said for years.

 

It seems that sharebrokers start touting CAH everytime it gets down to 150 odd - or maybe when they feel the market is flagging a bit and this is an opportunity to drum up some business.

 

WHS is at interesting point. A price of 620-625 seems to be a resistance level WHS finds hard to break through. Should it break through and not fall back through soon afterwards this level may become a new support level and the price could head up towards 700. Phaedrus's chart seems to suggest thst it could fall back and then there is the matter of the buyback. Interesting few days ahead for the WHS price but what happens could map out the future position of WHS will go over the six months or so. Hanging in there so far today.

 

Peter