Forum Archive Index - August 2001

["Paul and Noriko" <pan@muh.biglobe.ne.jp>]

Correct me if I'm wrong but if the FFS debt is in $US then if the $US is weakening, it can be paid off with less $NZ right - therefore it should be positive....?

----- Original Message -----

From: greg

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Friday, 17 August 2001 10:00

Subject: Re: [sharechat] fletcher forists

Graeme,

 

from what I can gather Fletcher Forest's NTA is about 58cps.  This figure uses market valuation of the forest estate but assumes the company will recover all of its US$225m debt from the CNIFP sale.

 

The receivers in charge of the CNIFP are actively seeking bids (with the help of FFS it seems).  The biggest influence on the share price in the short term is likely to be this sale process.  If the assets are sold so that FFS can recover the whole US$225m (or even more) then there is likely to be a substantial rise in the share price.  On the other hand if FFS can manage to put together a consortium to buy the assets then the price will also rise - but possibly not as sharply as if another company bought the assets outright (FFS would then be a clear takeover target as current manager of the CNIFP forest).

 

The current price has drifted down from 34c again, possibly this time due to the weakening US dollar.  I think the debt remains in US currency so FFS is in effect slightly worse off (can anybody confirm this?)

 

Rgds,

greg

 

disc:  Own FFS