Forum Archive Index - August 2001

["Culley, Andrew" <andrew.culley@eds.com>]

The charts will tell you little or nothing.  A few facts:

RCH has moved from a low of 34-35 to a high of 93-94 in the space of 4
months;
The profit announcement for the half year is due in the next couple of
weeks.  
The company has just returned to profitability.

Add in to the mix :
the company is trying to sell a major asset (Mobil on the Park), and there
have been no reports about progress, plus 
the difficulty of estimating the profit (have heard people make cases for
anything between $1.5m and 9m! for the half) and 
the Colyer Mair sale (at what price?) 

The situation you are seeing (fall from early 90s to 70s) is nothing more
than the market saying "we have not got a clue about what this company will
earn, or what its assets are actually worth".

Here is my view (for what it is worth).   The company will report a profit
of about $4m for the half.  The MOTP building will not sell, and Colyer Mair
will drag on indefinitely.   Gives EPS of about 11 cps for the year, and a
fair value of anywhere between 77 and 99.     (assuming a pe between 7 and
9).    Anything above or below 4m for the half is likely to have a fairly
dramatic effect on price.   

Disc - hold RCH



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