Forum Archive Index - July 2001

["Michael Phillips" <michael.p@paradise.net.nz>]

From: "Derek"

> I suspect that the recent surge in CEN
> has more to do with the high price of
> electricity at the moment.

The recent surge most definitely (IMHO) is a reflection of this, and to
my way of thinking explains the breakout.  This has not however, been
the rationale for the strengthening lower trendline over the past 18
months as demonstrated by Phaedrus' chart.

I am unable to provide you with any enlightenment on the mechanics
within the industry.  As I see it, it is not the most transparent of
markets in which to operate.  It appears to me that the margin for error
between an efficient market and one favouring the upstream generators or
the downstream retailers is mighty fine.  This may not be the case, and
hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I seem to recall that CEN was
lamenting the prices it was achieving in the spot market not so long
ago.

Regards
Michael
===

disc: hold CEN (apologies for omitting disc in recent post)


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