Forum Archive Index - July 2001

["ryanrite" <ryanrite@xtra.co.nz>]

Hi trevor
I just sold IFT  because last year their shares went down to $1.16 which I
bought but I also purchased @1.38
They take 4% profit for themselves which takes the cream away
They do have good experience of running airports and will do well at this
but I believe went our dollor goes up there overseas investments will not
look so go
The directors have been buying shares this is great
Hope that helps
Athol  (I will buy in if the price comes back say $1.40)
----- Original Message -----
From: <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Friday, July 20, 2001 6:19 AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Infratil


> Hi Trevor,
>
> I don't follow this share closely, but I do have it on the outer
> limits of my radar screen watching as a possibly future interestred
> party
> >
> >
> > Its what I would term a regional services monopoly
> >
> >
> You are referring to Wellington Airport?  What proportion of Infratil
> Assets is that?
> >
> >
> > and has fairly
> > consistent earning history over the last 5 years.
> >
> >
> Infratil has traditionally been an asset trader, taking strategic
> positions in infrastructure assets and then flogging them off.
> As such, I can't see that you can have an earning history that has
> any meaning.   Once you sell an asset one year, you can't sell it
> again the next year!
>
> Personally I don't like this asset trading approach for utilities.
> If an asset is a virtual monopoly (e.g. Wellington Airport), why
> would I want to sell it?   I'd rather hang in there.
>
> And if an infrastructural asset is cyclical (e.g. Trustpower), I'd
> rather put my money in a company that isn't (e.g United Networks).
> >
> >
> > I've played around with the past data using Buffetology methods and
> > come up with a projected per share earnings of $0.60 2011 and a
> > share price of $9.00 at that date assuming a PE of a conservative
> > 15.
> >
> >
> I wouldn't say 15 was conservative P/E for a utility company.  And it
> sounds way too aggressive for an asset trading company.   Of course
> if Infratil transform themselves into an international airport
> holding company then 15 may not be out of the ball park.
> >
> >
> > Discounting this to a present value using a 16% compounded return
> > and I get a present share price of $2.04.
> >
> > Its trading at $1.53 today and would on the face of it look like a
> > good buy.
> >
> > Any comments from anybody with greater knowledge than I?
> >
> >
> >
> Have you looked at Auckland International Airport?   How does it
> compare with that? SNOOPY
>
>
>
>
> ---------------------------------
> Message sent by Snoopy
> e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
> on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
> ----------------------------------
> "You can tell me I'm wrong twice,
> but that still only makes me wrong once."
>
>
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