Forum Archive Index - June 2001

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Grant,

> 
>An EXCELLENT post, thanks Phaedrus.
>
>
Yes it was, but that is no excuse for irrational exuberance
>
> 
>And thanks also for (much of the time) single-handedly promoting the
>virtues of TA to the uninitiated (such as myself).  I must admit
>that at first I thought it WAS snake oil, having been swayed by
>statements from others on this forum that charts could not predict
>the future.
>
>

Read Phaedrus's posts again.  He never said charts could predict the 
future, and they can't.

>
> 
> However, there are others such as TEL/TELCA/TELA which I have
> successfully traded a few times now, and come away with 50% profits
> each time.  All has gone well on shares which have RISEN in value...
>
>

You will find most strategies work on shares that rise.

>
> 
> This is where I'm at right about now.  I have some stars e.g. SOE
> and AIA, but I also have some dogs like ADV and THL.  A disciplined
> stop-loss strategy would have saved me a lot of angst in the case of
> ADV  :(
> 
>

Ring fencing your failures, and only counting the shares that you 
have traded successfully does not constitute a successful 
trading system.

>
> But lessons don't come cheaply in this game, and I can see where a
> good charting program and Stop-Loss strategy would have saved me
> from several costly mistakes.  Not to mention confirming the right
> times to trade cyclical stocks such as TLS or TEL.  
>
>

Ahem, Telstra and Telecom NZ are *not* cyclical stocks.  Cyclical 
stocks are those where the performace is tied to particular commodity 
price cycles.  Anything from products off the land to cars.   But not 
the use of communication lines.   Telcos may have taken on a 
bit of a price wobble over the last 12 months, due to being 
hitched into the dot.com boom, but that is over.   I predict you'll 
find things a lot more stable from here on out, for both TEL and TLS. 

>
>I just wanted to say thanks for opening my eyes, and
>while I've yet to make a trade on the basis of my
>new-found knowledge, it's great to have such a powerful
>analytical tool at my fingertips.
>

As long as you remember charting is only a tool and not a magic box 
that will feed you solutions, you should be fine.   Prosperous 
investing Grant. SNOOPY









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