Forum Archive Index - June 2001

["Jeremy" <jeremy@electrosilk.net>]

> Trends do not exist. (!)
> They are of no use in making trading decisions. (!)
> They can not be seen on charts. (!)
> Charts are useless. (!) (Is the trend not your friend?)
>
>  I've got you, havn't I Hugh?   If you accept the premise that trends
exist, this leads quite logically to the fact that charts are useful. If you
claim trends do not exist, you become a laughing stock.
>
>  You are between a rock and a hard place, old son.

Think Roulette.  You can be having a great time trend betting on the reds
all night and making money, but the probability of the next number turning
up red is the same, nearly 50%.

That is the way that all casinos make money.  they have lots of mug punters
believing in trends and not paying attention to basic statistics.

Share trading is pretty similar, but there is an apparent gain for everyone
as the average share price rises over time.  In fact the gain is illusory -
sort of like inflation - unless there is a real creation of value, which in
the present high tech market is highly improbable.

Jeremy



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