Forum Archive Index - June 2001

["Malcolm Cameron" <malharcameron@hotmail.com>]

Snoopy
please get hold of the australian financial review weekend edition june 23& 
24th on page 24 there is an article on telstra that wonders due to 
fundamentals why the telstra share price is anywhere near the high price it 
is. on my reading of the article i would think it should be down to at least 
$4.50 if not lower. for air nz buffs there is agood insight to air NZ 
problems etc. i think a good library in NZ should have a copy about 
wednesday.
happy investing
Malcolm Cameron


>From: "tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>
>Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>Subject: Re: [sharechat] TLS
>Date: Sat, 23 Jun 2001 23:16:31 +0000
>
>Hi Phaedrus,
>
>
> >
> > Snoopy, your devotion to this stock (because of its good
> > fundamentals) has cost you nearly 40% in 18 months. This is
> > a big loss, especially since the market went up by over 10%
> > in the same period. TLS now must go up by 63% just to get
> > back to where it was.
> >
> >
>
>
>It's just as well I didn't buy in at the top then isn't is Phaedrus
>;-).   I haven't worked out what my average entry price into Telstra
>is, although in truth,  I am probably down.
>
>Am I concerned?  No, because when I topped up on Telstra I did so
>knowing that the price could fall.  But I also knew that because
>Telstra is a strong performing company it will be back.  Your chart
>shows a downtrend but if you look at the actual company results (eps,
>ROE) and the outlook the only trend is upwards.  This means that the
>downtrend in share price has been caused by a change in *expectation*
>of future performance in the next year or so, not by any actual
>deterioration in performance.  I am not a seller in the next year or
>so.   This means, outrageously high valuations aside, I am quite
>comfortable with the idea of sitting and waiting on TLS at any sort
>of price level within cooee of where it is now.  Your charts may not
>tell you it is close to a bottom, but I will tell you, based on
>fundamentals, it is.
>
>
>
>
> >
> >
> > I can see the attraction of your approach, though. As the price
> > falls, the fundamentals just keep on getting better. You are never
> > wrong!
> >
> >
>
>
>Prices fall for different reasons.  In the case of TLS there has been
>no deterioration in the operating performance.   As long as the
>operating performance remains good, you are correct.  I cannot lose,
>as sooner or later the share price will catch up with the
>fundamentals!   I wouldn't even have much hesitation in buying more
>of this one on the way down (which is where your and my philosophies
>will have to agree to differ).  I've never really fussed too much
>about picking the exact bottom.  It would be nice, but to me the risk
>of buying now, for instance, is less than the risk of not buying
>being away from the market for a couple of weeks and missing the
>turning point.   I'll keep this fish on the line thanks, rather than
>let it go and *hope* to hook it again when it gets a little bigger
>and fatter. SNOOPY
>
>PS  Your use of the word 'devotion' implies that you think I have
>some sort of blind fervour towards Telstra.   If you look on the
>Focus Investment Group, I have posted a Screen 1 Review of Telstra.
>I think you will find that I have done my homework on this one.
>
>
>
>---------------------------------
>Message sent by Snoopy
>e-mail  tennyson@caverock.net.nz
>on Pegasus Mail version 2.55
>----------------------------------
>"Dogs have big tongues, so you can bet they don't
>bite them by accident"
>
>
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