Forum Archive Index - June 2001

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

Hi Gerry,

> 
>Replying to your remark that " The market is currently severely
>overvaluing the AIRVA shares ", is a statement which can not be
>justified at the present time, I think.
>
>
I was only painting one possible picture.   There are of course many 
others, and many unanswered questions.  But if you think I'm 
wrong, feel free to point out where.  The figures are there laid bare 
for all to see.
>
> 
>The market thinks that there are other outcomes than a " severe
>"cash issue under the present regime of A & B shares.
>
>
For sure there are.  Suppose there was some tie up with 'Virgin 
Blue', (who are also losing money).   Maybe Virgin might become Air 
NZs 'value brand' in Australia, much as 'Freedom' is in this country. 
  And Virgin has nice new planes!   So maybe not all of that 
$5billion that Ansett think they need will actually be needed after 
all.  And Virgin could end up owning 25% of Air New Zealand with no 
objection from our Government.
> 
>If you as a Director of an AIR Board had the authority to inform the
>media that there will be a 5:1 cash issue, then, the A shares will
>probably fall to 85 cents or perhaps touch 80.
>
>
Much worse than that.  If you can buy rights for 40c on the market, 
why pay more for the head shares? 
>
> 
>I can't see any reason to talk the market down with a statement that
>shares are heavily overpriced.
> 
> 
I have no wish to 'talk the market down'.  I hold AIR! remember?

SNOOPY


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