Forum Archive Index - May 2001

[Greg <g&jelliott@xtra.co.nz>]

Yes Hugh, this is very interesting and I see the shares rising (from abysmal
to still bad) today. A couple of articles in the media, but they didn't make
sense either - as though Qantas would be allowed to take 55% of Air NZ. They
are direct competitors. They looked at buying into Air NZ last year? (don't
have the articles readily to hand) and that got nowhere. Better to increase
SIA's holding. And I don't believe that a 40% SIA stake would compromise our
international landing agreements. I know that SIA are waiting eagerly in the
wings, have plenty of money - no hurry, but they would want more influence.
I don't have a problem with that. The Kiwi/Singaporean mix is a good one. We
work well together. Mind you, we had the opportunity to gang up against
Qantas when all this started (by allowing SIA to buy News Corp's 50%) - we
turned it down. Ostensibly, this was because McCrea's vision for growth
precluded partnership for dominance. We wanted the lot. I never did find out
what BIL's part was in this - but now they seem prepared to sell out and let
SIA take Ansett after all?? And how much would we lose doing that?

Can understand BIL wanting out - have done for some time. Would be good for
the airline anyway. Can understand SIA wanting Ansett - that was their
original strategy. Can't understand AirNZ selling out just yet, when Ralph
Norris was about to present options for future capitalisation. Their cash
position is not so bad, and I'd thought from Toomey's recent statements and
stockbroker analyses (confirmed by Snoopy's latest posting - thanks Snoopy),
that they'd suffer a couple of years of marginal earnings/losses, then claw
back to be bigger then ever, and a dominant regional player. Why slip back
to being a small regional airline with a few Asian and American linkages in
a very competitive market? Except perhaps that AirNZ has been doing well,
and Ansett has been dragging them down. But that wasn't forever.

A continuing saga in a tangled and confusing web of alliances and proposals.
Maybe we shouldn't believe everything we read. After all, they were supposed
to be approaching Govt for a handout recently - not! Intriguing.

Greg E.
(disc - hold AIR - old promisory notes mainly, not of much value today)
> From: "hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>
> Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
> Date: Wed, 30 May 2001 07:06:11 +1200
> To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> Subject: Re: [sharechat] Qantas moves on AIR
> 
> Air N Z is already majority owned overseas - BIL is an overseas
> company mostly owned overseas and there has been a flimsy
> device whereby an NZ domiciled subsidiary holds the Air N Z
> shares. Anyone overseas could get them via the international landing
> rights anytime they wanted to.
> Nevertheless my prediction is the Qantas takeover bid won't fly on
> regulatory/competition grounds. Its a boondoggle dreamt up by
> some merchant banker/brokerage touting for business and Qantas
> can't lose. Either they get everything or a good chunk or at the least
> they majorly disrupt a major competitor.
> Interesting that Cushing has stepped aside from both posts - I wonder
> if he'll come back....
> 
> ----------
>> From: Matthew Van Veen <mattvanveen@hotmail.com>
>> To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>> Subject: Re: [sharechat] Qantas moves on AIR
>> Date: Tuesday, 29 May 2001 20:19
>> 
>> Peter
>> 
>> Quire ironic this news came out after you posted a message this morning
>> stating
>> "surely some good has to come to them soon".
>> 
>> Well I don't know whether this is the good to come - although not a
> current 
>> AIR shareholder, I personally would be against anymove by a foreign
> airline 
>> to take a majority stake in Air New Zealand. If you were writing a book
> on 
>> the whole saga thats occurred in the last 12 months you would be busy
>> writing a new chapter every day.
>> 
>> Will be interesting to see what unfolds.
>> 
>> Matt
>> 
>> 
>>> From: "Peter Maiden" <pmaiden@xtra.co.nz>
>>> Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>>> To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
>>> Subject: [sharechat] Qantas moves on AIR
>>> Date: Tue, 29 May 2001 11:40:15 +1200
>>> 
>>> Breaking news - CNBC
>>> 
>>> Cushing to stand down
>>> 
>>> Qantas to take stake in AIR - possibly from BIL
>>> 
>>> How does this fit into this intriguing game that is unfolding?
>>> 
>>> Cheers
>>> 
>>> Peter
>> 
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>> 
>> 
>> 
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