Forum Archive Index - May 2001

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

>
>Hugh,                                                       
>
>I sincerely believe you when you say that you have never heard of
> anyone making millions from technical analysis. 
>      You have obviously never heard of Joseph Granville, 
><snip>


Now Phadeus, it seems you have produced a list of people who 
developed various trading statistics and techniques and written books 
and/or put on seminars about them.  This is not the same thing as 
making millions from the techniques.

Here is a reference to Granville:

http://www.newstimes.com/archive96/sep2396/bzc.htm

"Granville used to be a real showman. He gave talks on the stock 
market while dressed in outfits that Elvis Presley might envy."

"Granville, 73 years old, continues to write the Granville Market 
Letter, from an office in his Kansas City, Mo., home. But he no 
longer moves markets, having lost most of his following after he 
wrongly predicted a decline in the early 1980s."

Looks to me like he made most of his money (if he did make any 
in the end) giving talks and selling books- *not* using his system, 
and is no longer taken seriously.

And of course you mentioned R N Elliot, of Elliot wave fame.

http://www.luckymojo.com/fibonaccimkt.html

"R. N. Elliott, an interestng character born around 1870 who spent 
the first 60 years of his life as a telegraph operator, railroad 
executive, and accountant. While working in Guatemala in 1927 he 
became seriously ill with an amoebic infection which developed into 
anemia. There followed a five year convalescence. It was during this 
period, often sitting alone on his front porch, that he developed his 
wave theory of markets." 

"At the same time, Elliot was very much interested in taking his 
theory beyond financial markets. He corresponded with and was 
influenced by Manly P. Hall. In 1945 he published another short work 
with the modest title, "Nature's Law", subtitled, "The Secret of the 
Universe." It is full of pyramidology, Pythagorean mysticism, and so 
forth." 

"People who follow Elliott Wave Theory tend to be True Believers. 
They believe that Elliott's system is pristine and perfect, and that 
if positive results aren't gained from following it, it only means 
you are doing it wrong, you are not a pure follower of Elliott. It 
sometimes seems more a cult than a discipline." 

I believe Elliot himself died in relative poverty.

"In 1978 Prechter had written a book on Elliott Wave theory in which 
he predicted that the Dow Jones average, then languishing around 
700-800, would undergo a massive rally in the next decade, topping 
out around 2700-2800, and then undergo a significant decline. 
Unfortunately, in 1983 he issued a revised estimate for a top around 
3600, so that in 1987 when the market did top out around 2750 and 
then plunge 1000 points, his many followers, trusting his revised 
forecast of a top around 3600, got their asses kicked and developed a 
very unfriendly attitude towards Prechter. Since that time the market 
has of course more than doubled, to a high around 5800, and on the 
way Prechter's top of 3600 never happened (not even in an 
intermediate sense)." 

So Phadeus, before I go any further investigating your 'list 
of technical trading stars' do you have any evidence that any of 
these people you list *ever* made a million from their "systems"? 
SNOOPY






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