Forum Archive Index - May 2001

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

hmmm, FFS, TEL, FRU, ITC, and THL.....
seems more like a flutter on the TAB to me.
FFS is still a rank commodity stock and although paper has
cyclically gone up, log prices haven't and don't seem to be about
to anytime soon. 
TEL - I can't see the intensifying competition going away and if you look
at the halved dividend against the price it strikes me the price needs to
fall somewhat further yet. 3G or even 2.5G? Everyone seems to be 
running for cover and delaying roll outs. Anyone want to watch the
Super 12 final on a 5 cm cellphone screen or checkout Sharechat on it.
FRU - haven't really followed it, I'm allergic to IPO's without track
records.
But I vaguely absorbed its not a complete disaster despite its recent
disappointments and has a moderate future.
ITC - a lot of experienced players and commentators are also allergic to
venture capital outfits. The projects nearly all take much longer to get
going,
need extra injections of capital and don't pay dividends for ages. Earlier
in this forum I suggested ITC consider some alternative rewards to
shareholders
such as spinning off shares in some of the successful ventures directly
to ITC shareholders. Its not a completely revolutionary idea, it has been
done
before. The ideas seem to have about as much effect as pelting an elephant
with individual frozen peas 100 metres from the rear.
THL - tourism is always a very reluctant performer that hardly ever gets
going
and never for long. Take hotels....or airlines...lots of competition in
campervans
too isn't there.

I would have thought (after reading the Sunday Star today) that there's
more
to come in say Cedenco and some of the high yielders like Hallenstein.
I've never been in KIP but I wonder how much longer the anomaly of paying 
much higher dividends per share than earnings per share will run....
If you have good nerves you could have a flutter on NZR like me....

I always wondered where the picks for the year ahead came from but then I
thought it was probably one of those blindfolded monkeys throwing darts
at a dartboard of the NZSE or a benefit to the wine industry. On the other
hand 
some of the picks seem to have been on the basis that a particular share
has
been doing so disastrously it just couldn't possibly continue in that vein
-
um how about BIL, Savoy, AQL, National Mail....nah, I prefer more
analytical
theories. Or maybe a chartist or momentum investor extrapolation of when
Baycorp or the Warehouse were about to intersect with the moons apogee... 

cheers,
Hugh



----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.shtml.