Forum Archive Index - May 2001

["tennyson@caverock.net.nz" <tennyson@caverock.net.nz>]

>
> Gerry,
> 
> Do you have any more advice as to the exact risk factors in
> investing in MMD or what any announcement on the start of human
> trials will do to the share price? Appreciate any comments or
> investment wisdom. Thanks Jonathan
> 
Jonathon, Gerry has given you a good rundown on the technical risks 
with the artificial heart.   However, you asked for *investing* risk 
factors which is quite a different matter.  There are all sorts of 
other factors to consider over and above any technical risk.

Any greenfield medical project like this needs to be:
i/Proven in human trials
ii/Be better than the competition (how do you know some lab in the 
USA isn't designing a better smarter version)
iii/ Have a highly trained sales force behind it so that the right  
medical decision makers can be reached.
  
As it stands this project has nil earnings, so effectively the 
MMD share price appreciation is running on hype.  One wrong move and 
the share price could halve overnight.

You asked how risky this share is?   With the tech bubble burst I 
will stick my head out and say this is *the* riskiest share that has 
been discussed on the forum this year.  You should regard any money 
you put into this as the speculative end of any portfolio.  Don't put 
all your money into this basket!   Of course the flip side of extreme 
risk is extreme reward, and if MMD get it right you might just get an 
extreme reward by buying into it. SNOOPY

(disc: do not hold MMD, far too risky for me, might consider it in 10 
years or so)

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