Forum Archive Index - April 2001

["G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>]

 

 

Tony,

 

Yes, I do agree that owning 100% of the Gribbles Group will be more conducive to a takeover offer.

It is always possible that there have been discussions.

Any offerer has to be keen to take over on the basis of my projected P/E of some 38-42 odd - refer to my last post. It seems to me that part of the current $1.06 price still has an element of expectation built into the share price.

 

I did mention that in my opinion the price trend looks like going down, unless there is a takeover.

And the longer it takes before there is any news, the more likely this will occur, as some investors will become impatient.

 

After so many takeovers, the Commission should be well aware what the effect will be on consumers and they will be having a hard look at any future proposals.

 

However, I find that their intangibles are only $ 14.9 mill. The 2000 report also mentions that there were 77 mill. options outstanding; about 25 mill. of those are exercisable @ 6-8 cents in April 2002, the rest up to 28 cents in 2005. I have not included these in my calculations.

 

After the 1:3 reconstruction, these 77 mill options are now reduced to about 27 mill.

 

Barring unforeseen events, I can see them having another reconstruction, say a 1:2 after any good news, say next year.

 

I always appreciate such a move when the relationship between the size of the profit and the number of shares is "out of kilter "

 

Kelvin mentioned that he " does not have a large amount of shares "; it is possible that he may decide to stay where he is, if the costs of conversion are too high!

 

The MCD directors have done a good job in the listing exercises! The question now is, will the shareholders benefit? It is possible that, given enough time, they will !  

 

Those are my opinions,

 

Regards,

 

Gerry

 

PS: I won't be able to take part in any future discussions on MCD.