Sent: Monday, April 23, 2001 10:35
AM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Qantas Effect
on Airports
Deidre,
Readers will know, that I have discussed
AIA from time to time.
Investors have been asking why
AIA,s share price was not $ 4.0 at this
stage.
It is highly likely that some larger investors
knew about the failed airline not having been able to pay landing fees for
two months at Wellington.
For a start, some staff would have known this
and presumably, Infratil, the chief investor, will be well aware of this.
The topic would have been discussed at their Board meeting!
It is therefore possible that much of any
fall-out has already been factored into the share price of
AIA.
AIA is a much stronger company
and may well have received the landings fees, anyway, leaving Wellington and
possibly CH-CH out of pocket.
I believe that AIA 's
projection of overseas arrivals is well below the
actual numbers.
There is a lag of time between the fall of the
$NZ and the consequent increase in tourism.
Tourist numbers for March - and for the
whole country - were 16% up on March last year according to official
figures .
Therefore, much of the effect of the
collapse will be negated.
I quizzed two brokers on their opionion, both
think, that although there could some temporary problem, in the medium and
long term AIA may benefit.
Much depends on the possibility of Quantas
Australia operating here.
This company could be interested because it
pays to "keep Air NZ weak " and also, because it would have better
control of the NZ feeder routes to
Australia.
So, if the share price of AIA
drops too much then it pays to buy some, I
think.
Gerry
See IRG research reports
