Forum Archive Index - March 2001

[nickkearney@xtra.co.nz]

> 
> From: "Steven Tong" <soarer1@voyager.co.nz>
> Date: Thu, 29 Mar 2001 14:55:27 +1200
> To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> Subject: [sharechat] My opinion
Steve

I agree with what you say.  The only people that should consider that they will 
make money in the near future are those that sell short.  In the USA, the 
situation is almost dire.  The bananabrain.com companies have no earnings and 
the average p/e is still close to 100!

The banks that have lent to these fly by nighters are going to demand some 
money soon (uf they haven't done already) and how can a company with no 
earnings pay back millions of dollars!

These companies are going to have to lay off staff (happening already).  This 
will cause unemployment figures to increase and no amount of liberal economic 
policy by 'W' or Greenbackspan will change this.

As for AQL, you are better off going to Sky City and putting $1000 on 24 black. 
 At least you have soe chance there.

In my opinion, the DOW will go to 7000 or therabouts.  The NASDAQ about 1000.  
It will take 12 months (or maybe 18) but it will happen.  It will be a bear 
market.  Of that there is no doubt.

Your maths are right also.  A drop of 40% requires a huge return to make it 
near your entry level.  If you want to wait then fine, but the opportunity cost 
may be too much I think.  IF YOU CAN AT ALL SELL SHORT OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS 
THEN DO IT.

Cheers

NK

> I have  read with interest share chatters postings over the last six months 
>or so.  Whilst I  appreciate many are new to the share market, should the 
>point not be made that direct share investing  is not for the beginner nor the 
>person who cannot dedicate large amounts of time and effort.
> 
> It still amazes me that people are     asking questions about AQL etc, surely 
>there are hundreds if not thousands of  better companies  in the various 
>worldwide markets !!
> 
> World stock markets are going lower that is a certainty, corporate profits 
>drive share prices and they are going lower ( alot lower )
> Nortel the first of many for q1 and q2
> 
> The NZ market may not have as far to fall, but the overall market is 
>determined by Wall Street. Cutting interest rates by a couple of  hundred 
>basis points is not going to get the average punter to buy a new laptop ( IN 
>THE SHORT TERM ANYWAY )
> 
> My advise would be to sit on the sidelines and  wait and see what happens, 
>the markets are way to volatile for the experts ( who get it wrong all the 
>time ) let alone Joe Punter who is thinking about buying 1000 AQL !! 
> 
> Put your money in the bank and wait and see what happens, if your in   for 
>the long term, wait for the right trade   it may take  6 months or a year, so 
>be it, it will come along if your patient enough !!
> 
> Would also suggest that new investors put simple trading techniques like 
>stops and trailing stops in place, hard to believe how many share  chatters 
>have let their stocks fall 20/30/40/50%. These companies are never likely to 
>recover these losses contrary to what your broker may be telling you.
> 
> Hope the above is taken the right way and some people   get something out of 
>it.
>    
>  Steve
> 
> 
> DISC   Holding  85 %   cash
>                        15 %   US biotec stocks 
> 
>

I have  read with interest share = chatters=20 postings over the last six months or so.  Whilst I  appreciate = many=20 are new to the share market, should the point not be made that=20 direct share investing  is not for the = beginner nor=20 the person who cannot dedicate large amounts of time and = effort.

 

It still amazes me that people are =    =20 asking questions about AQL etc, surely there are hundreds if not = thousands=20 of  better companies  in the various worldwide markets = !!

 

World stock markets are going lower = that is a=20 certainty, corporate profits drive share prices and they are going lower = ( alot=20 lower )

Nortel the first of many for q1 and = q2

 

The NZ market may not have as far to = fall, but the=20 overall market is determined by Wall Street. Cutting interest rates by a = couple=20 of  hundred basis points is not going to get the average punter to = buy a=20 new laptop ( IN THE SHORT TERM ANYWAY )

 

My advise would be to sit on the = sidelines=20 and  wait and see what happens, the markets are way to volatile for = the=20 experts ( who get it wrong all the time ) let alone Joe Punter who is = thinking=20 about buying 1000 AQL !!

 

Put your money in the bank and wait and = see what=20 happens, if your in   for the long term, wait for the right=20 trade   it may take  6 months or a year, so be it, it = will come=20 along if your patient enough !!

 

Would also suggest that new investors = put simple=20 trading techniques like stops and trailing stops in place, hard to = believe how=20 many share  chatters have let their stocks fall 20/30/40/50%. = These=20 companies are never likely to recover these losses = contrary to=20 what your broker may be telling you.

 

Hope the above is taken the = right way and=20 some people   get something out of it.

  =  

 Steve

 

 

DISC   Holding  85 = %  =20 cash

       =20             =    15=20 %   US biotec stocks