Forum Archive Index - March 2001

["G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>]

 

Readers,

 

1. Data.

Contributors were asked to estimate the market price (in cents) of RUBICON at end of first trading day ( A ), and at end of the first week' s trading ( Z ) :

 

Name                  A,  Z.         Name                    A,   Z

 

K Bailey               50 55        Robert Cox              31  27

C Ross                 60 50        Derek                     65  65

C Mair                  47 38        Gary Rountree         45  48

K&A Frankum       63 57        Graeme O' Donnell   23  16

H v. Roon              62 75        Andrew Smith         36  29

 

M Hudson             44 41        John Wedde            65  48

Daniel                   50 53        Margr.                    55  45  

Val Twiname         45 50         Gerry Stolwyk        32  30 

Adrian& Vanessa   51 48        Michael Trail           36  32

Malcolm Cameron  45 22        John Weernink        53  37

 

Nicholas Martin      55 40        Dave Woodhouse    35  28

George Hill             83 57        Nick Kearney         41  40     

David Adams          52 43        Wayne McDonald   37  39 

The Brodies            42 37        Nick McVerry         41  53

Peter Maiden          41 36

       

Total entries: 29.

 

2. Results of sets:            A          Z   

                    

Mean of all data:              48         43 

            

Median                            45         41

 

Mean of 'central' data # :    47        43

 

# : Upper and lower quartiles have been excluded. Are most of the data in the upper quartile from potential sellers and will the converse apply to data from the lower quartile? 

 

3. Comments:

The price of Rubicon is highly sensitive to the price of the stand-alone Forest shares.

It also depends on the quantity and speed of any disposal of any Rubicon shares by large overseas holders.

 

Any cross-overs of large parcels and any presence of a predator will be other variables to consider.

 

Buyers of Rubicon will need to time their purchases. Many investors tend to buy over time: Buying of batches at low prices, will often reduce risks. 

 

Long term investors hope that their Board of Directors will make the right decisions in the future!

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I want to thank the contributors for entering this competition.

 

Special thanks to the new contributors: Some very good entries! I am sure that this Forum will appreciate more posts from you in the future!    

 

Gerry