Forum Archive Index - March 2001

[maunsell/liu <kiong@paradise.net.nz>]

Title: Re: [sharechat] CAH

A continual slump in building here & in Australia not to mention the U.S. tend me a little towards caution with CAH .Then reports like the one included below WE must take into account when placing a forward value on CAH .

DM

Monday March 19, 4:23 pm

Eastern Time

Analyst sees "rough" 2001; lowers forest estimates

NEW YORK, March 19 (Reuters) - A key wood and paper industry analyst lowered his earnings estimates for most of the sector's major companies Monday, saying the prospects were for a ``rough'' year 2001, starting with a ``tough'' first quarter.

Mark Wilde of Deutsche Banc. Alex Brown cut the estimates for International Paper Co. (NYSE:IP - news), the world's largest paper company, as well as for other giants such as Georgia-Pacific Corp. (NYSE:GP - news), Weyerhaeuser Co. (NYSE:WY - news), Willamette Industries (NYSE:WLL - news) and Bowater Inc. (NYSE:BOW - news)

``Ouch!!! Looks like we're headed for a very tough first quarter and a rough overall 2001,'' Wilde said in a research note. ``Issues in the first quarter are apt to center around lots of downtime (where companies curtail production at mills to lower inventory), high energy costs and weak building products prices.''

These were the factors cited in January, when most wood and paper companies reported fourth-quarter earnings below Wall Street expectationsor outright losses. Wilde said things were not looking any better for the first quarter of 2001.

He lowered first-quarter estimates for Bowater to 65 cents per share from 83 cents, for International Paper to 12 cents from 18 cents, for Willamette to 58 cents from 63 cents and he estimated Georgia-Pacific's loss will be larger at 25 cents per share from a 15-cent loss. He kept Weyerhaeuser's earnings estimate at 62 cents in the first quarter.

For the year 2001, Wilde lowered Bowater's earnings estimate to $2.05 from $2.95, Georgia-Pacific's to a loss of 90 cents from earnings of 55 cents, International Paper was dropped to 45 cents from $1.00, Weyerhaeuser was lowered to $2.20 from $2.80 and Willamette to $1.85 from 2.40.

Wilde's note said he had grown "more bearish about pulp and paper commodity prices through the balance of the year.

``Best bets in a rough environment? Everyone will get stung, but containerboard and newsprint look the most interesting, in our opinion.''