Forum Archive Index - February 2001

[Marilyn Munroe <who.c@res.co.nz>]

The recent outbreak of foot and mouth disease in U K is a disaster for
their farmers. The government has imposed a complete movement ban on livestock
and a slaughter ban. This will cause a complete disruption to the U K meat
industry until the foot & mouth outbreak is controlled.

There will be a dramatic shortage of edible protein. The alternatives are Tofu burgers or imported meats. This will make any old bit of scrawny mutton from N Z very valuable.
Any sales manager for a N Z meat exporter who has had the dumb luck to send meat to the U K on consignment (without a pre arranged buyer) will be dancing cart wheels.

The big gamble now is how long will this all last? If meat can be got away on the next boat and the epidemic is still raging when the meat arrives in the U K, bonanza! If on the other hand the epidemic has cleared when the N Z meat arrives, and the back log of animals for slaughter is surging through the U K system, nemesis!

So the dilemma for the investor is, will AFFCO participate in this gold rush, and if they do will the claim be worked out by the time they get there?

The best long term outcome would be if U K consumers already jumpy over mad cow disease started to question the economic logic of supporting European Farmers through higher prices and taxes.

Boop-boop-de-do Marilyn

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