Forum Archive Index - February 2001

[Louise Taylor <louise.taylor@xtra.co.nz>]

On the surface, it may appear to be an overreaction, but have we seen
the worst??
$28m downgraded to $21m downgraded to $14-16m.  Who is ruling out a
further downgrade??  Almost certainly there won't be another downgrade
of the same magnitude, but a FY profit of between $12-14m is not
inconceivable.  Apparently first half will be around $6.6m, so more of
the same could be expected.  Although extrodinary events contributed to
this, they havent turned around yet.  Australian business may continue
to suffer, and large capital expenditure is being undertaken to upgrade
fleet.  ie Less cash flow, and probably an impared divident as a result.

Medium to long term some potential, but I can't see too much short term
upside.  Best to hold off until things become clearer.  It will probably
float aimlessly around $1.35 for some time, prehaps lower.  Invest you
money elsewhere and pick this one up around the end of the year.  I
currently hold no THL.

-18 year old pro.


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