Forum Archive Index - January 2001

["charlie brown" <gordy_gecko@hotmail.com>]

Aagh, the same Dennis Lee who said that Fletcher 
Forests could trade as low as $0.10.

Sorry to be cynical.

The figure quoted re the demise of the Top Cat seems awfully high?


>From: "Mike Hudson" <mikehudson@clear.net.nz>
>Reply-To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
>To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
>Subject: Re: [sharechat] Tranzrail ...idle gossip
>Date: Fri, 19 Jan 2001 13:08:34 +1300
>
>Just arrived in my in box, Obviously these folk have not had the benefit of 
>a camping holiday on the Coast.
>
>Tranz Rail Holdings… Recommendation Upgrade and earnings forecast update 
>Our medium-term market outlook is softer than previously expected, and the 
>operating costs of TRH are likely to be higher due to an expansion in the 
>fast ferry business and higher than expected fuel costs and casualties & 
>insurance charges… The combined impact of the revenue downgrades and higher 
>operating costs reduces our revised NPAT by 30% in FY01 to $32.3m; 23% in 
>FY02 to $49.8m; and 22% in FY03 to $53.9m… Our DCF valuation of TRH is 
>$4.20, of which $0.40 is attributed to our valuation of the potential 
>contribution to TRH from the demise of Top Cat… Although the stock is 
>unlikely to trade at its valuation level in the near-term, its relative 
>attractiveness has improved recently. With corporate activity having the 
>potential to surprise the market on the upside, we have upgraded our 
>recommendation from HOLD to ADD. (Source: Dennis M Lee, Analyst, ABN AMRO 
>NZ)
>

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