Forum Archive Index - January 2001

["Rick Nelson" <rick@signalgroup.co.nz>]

Peter, re: SKY.  Not a stock I really follow but my comments for what they are worth follow.

 

Looks like a share that seems to move up/down quickly and then "bounce" back before moving again.

 

"Bounced" out of the downtrend that was established in mid August during the first week of December and looks like the bulls are trying to take control although as to be expected there are sellers around looking to exit on this rebound from lows of $2.60.

 

Interestingly when looking at the candlesticks the bottom formation began with a gap break down on 21 Nov and then a gap break up on 5 Dec then it track up to resistance at $3.10 with some good volume during initial trades at this level (400k - 500k traded a day).

 

Broke through that resistance at $3:10 on Friday with another gap break on good volume again.  If there are still sellers out there it may come back to $3:10 but this should now be a support level - a break below it down to $3.00 would be of concern and probably signal that the downtrend has returned.

 

Looks positive at the moment to me though if it holds support at $3.10.  Expect resistance levels at 3.20, 3.50, 4.00 and 4.20.

 

Rick

-----Original Message-----
From: owner-sharechat@sharechat.co.nz [mailto:owner-sharechat@sharechat.co.nz]On Behalf Of Peter Maiden
Sent: Sunday, 7 January 2001 11:04
To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz
Subject: Re: RE: [sharechat] THL

Rick - great to get a good technical view of THL.

 

A chart does tell a thousand words. I'd love to have more time to do some real serious charting.

 

However I make do with my weekly close charts of the stocks I follow. Even though I have a reasonable grasp of the charting fundamentals I do tend to draw my own view of the world on the chart to see what is going on. I believe you need to visualise what the chart could like like in the future, and if other factors support that view,  run with it and have faith in your own judgement. In a round about sort of way that is formalising your investment strategy in a particular stock.

 

THL was most likely oversold after notice of the first quarter result. However that is always likely to happen when high expectations are threatened. Managing shsreholder expectations has to be one of THL's management priorities in future.

 

Great to hear from you Rick. Wouldn't mind your views on the SKY chart. Seems to be forming another sustainable upward trend and will continue to trade within a fairly well defined channel (with the upward trend) for some time. Next high about 370 at the end of March?.

 

 All good stuff

 

Peter