Forum Archive Index - January 2001

["Warner Lamb" <cloud9@i4free.co.nz>]

Hi Gerry, Yes, lighthearted stuff But! I would not ignore the collective
power that the broking firms have to move these stocks in a consensus...eg
WHS last year. If these are their picks then they are certainly going to
recommend them to clients throughout the year (just as you have). This is
where most of the money flows right! and I believe you (like me) as an
individual investor with years of experience are in the minority.
Lets look at last years performance.
Ord Minnett Won with a 41% return in 2000, they were also 3rd in 99 with
76.4% which shows 99 was an easier year.
SS Barney were 2nd with 39% and Craig and Co 3rd with 28%.
Of all brokers in 2000, the average return was 14% (not bad)..even more
impressive against a -4.7% return for the NZSE..a 18.7% differential against
the index. 6 of 12 also beat 14%.

Its also interesting to note the badmouthing that DFM gets, they Won 99 and
were 7th this year..better than most recommendations of more "reputable"
firms.

I do understand your point of promoting ones own companies stock but the
brokers have done way better than indexed funds over the last few years and
some have had very consistant showings worth noting.
I always check what they are recommending..especially in a consensus.
It would be interesting to put $20k on FFS, AIRVA, WHS and SKY for the year
and check the outcome next year.

I for one wish I had followed Ord Minnett over the last few years..they have
done way better than me (58.7% ave over 2 years)

I still believe they are worth checking despite favouritism in some stocks.

R
Warner



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