Forum Archive Index - December 2000

[Sarah Corkill <sarahcorkill@yahoo.com>]

Hello to everyone,

Contradictory though the two Herald articles maybe they are just two
opinions of the possible direction of the AIR share price.  One with the
view that the cup is half empty or the optimistic broker report which
believes that the cup is half full.  
Research is only trying to look into that magical crystal ball and predict
the future by going on historical information.  I did read an interesting
article in the NBR (about 2ys ago from memory) that tracked broker
research (to see who picked what and if they were right) in the good old
US of A. The figures were scary!  Something like only 5% of the research
proved correct with the benefit of hindsight so 95% of the predictions
were wrong.  (if anyone from the NBR could pull out the article and post
it here it would make interesting holiday reading)

Last year many brokers where picking TEL to get to $12.  Anyone who
brought on that advice may now want to strangle their broker but only
hindsight has shown it was the wrong.  Those same analysts where also
picking FEG.  TEL looks less attractive @ under $5 than it did when it was
trading around $8 but very few people are tempted to buy it.  The very
negative picture everyone is painting for TEL at the moment makes its
future look bleak.

Lesson - you make money buying shares when the price falls and sentiment
towards the shares is negative, holding and selling when the sentiment
swings back to positive.
The vast majority of sharechat readers and contributors have spent enough
time watching the sharemarket to have an pretty good knowledge of prices
and where they have been.  You probably get a 'feeling' that a share is
just too low (doesn't apply to tech stocks!!)You have to have intestinal
fortitude to trust that instinct and buy.  When the rest of the market
changes it's mind and decides the company has turned the proverbial corner
to vast profits and growth then it will probably be too late.

Lesson - read as much information as you can lay your hands on and make up
your own mind! If it goes pear shaped you can give yourself a stern
telling off or if you get it right you can take yourself down to the pub
for a celebratory drink : )

Thanks Gerry for mentioning the article by Mr Brent Sheather in the
Herald.  I can't read it from England but I do know exactly what it will
say. Many investment advisors even though they claim to be 'independant'
will point people where they will earn the largest % of fees whether is is
a good investment or the right kind of investment product for their
individual needs. Investors - know your rights!  Find out exactly what
sort of fees and what tie-ups your financial advisor has in the placing of
your money.
Lesson - Always ask for a copy of your Investment advisors disclosure
statement.  Anyone seeking advise is entitled under S3 of the Investment
Advisors Act 1996 to request a disclosure statement that says how the
advisor will safeguard your funds (Trust accounting etc) and how much they
make on the deal.

Thanks to all the contributors of this forum. Your views and information
are always informative, interesting and usually entertaining reading. 
Thanks for your ongoing support of Sharechat.
A HUGE thanks to Ben, Will & Phil for all their hard work.

A very Happy and Prosperous New Year to you all.
Kind regards,

Sarah Corkill 

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