Forum Archive Index - December 2000

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

Just received the J B Were Xmas letter.
They see the NZ market as undervalued by 15% 
(but this could be lessened by profit downgrades)
and the Oz market overvalued by 8% and the
US market overvalued by an unquantified amount
(but see my previous post from Bloomberg quoting
P/Es of Fri 22nd Dec, 'Rational, Sane investing vs the
NASDAQ) , maybe the Dow is overvalued by about 55% from
that data.
They see the NZ and Oz markets possibly benefitting
from a move out of overvalued US stocks.

The NZ stocks they prefer are (for defensive reasons)
 Auck I A, Baycorp, 
Carter Holt, FCL Bldg, INL, Lion, Montana, Lyttelton Port,
Nat Gas Corp, Sky City, Sky TV, Tourism Hldgs, 
Tranz Rail, Waste Management, the Warehouse, and
Westpac Trust.

I have a little trouble following the reasoning for Carter Holt
(none actually provided) for example in an economic slowdown.
Maybe its time to jump ship for tradeable fixed interest
securities with an interest fall coming, even though the gains
are taxable? Any recommendations in that field?

cheers,
Hugh


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