Forum Archive Index - December 2000

["Mark Hubbard" <mhubbard@es.co.nz>]

> you sound like me....a risk taker. But your punting on a decent rally in
> Nasdaq over next 3 months, based on an idea? or just hoping?  Ihmo, odds
> are way against you getting that rally.
> Everyone knows January earnings in US are going to be bad,  and theres
> no way that can turn around in a quarter for April earnings. Even if Fed
> cut rates Jan 31st, it's already expected, and any rally will be brief
> imo.
> If a recession hits US, I'd say it'll be second half of next year, but I
> pick Nasdaq will go below 2000 easy by March, recession or not. (1800 is
> what many bears see as technical lows). Even if 2400 is the bottom, its
> more likely to sulk for months before going anywhere decent from here.


Merry Christmas to you to :)

I suspect you're right, but hope you're wrong. Lower oil prices, lower $US
to stimulate their exports into the mix will hopefully aid recovery before
recession kicks in.




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