Forum Archive Index - December 2000

["Colin Ross" <ceejaynz@xtra.co.nz>]

Thank y, I've reiterated my comments today.
Ceeajy
----- Original Message -----
From: Ben Dutton <bendutton@sharechat.co.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Tuesday, December 05, 2000 1:58 PM
Subject: Re: [sharechat] Re: Eldecare


> Hi Kelvin,
>
> I was tapping out a mail describing the competitive pressures the whole
> retirement sector faces, but Mark took the words out of my mouth.
>
> I should probably add that about a year ago, many brokers and analysts
were
> over-exceedingly positive about the industry - we heard the usual story,
> what a massive market the baby-boomer generation will be for future
> retirement villages, etc etc.
>
> However, I think many overlooked just what a competitive industry it
really
> is - think of how many advertisements there are out their for private
> retirement villages and home-care services.
>
> I pulled up an old post from Colin Ross (hope you don't mind Colin)
because
> it's a piece of "insider information" so to speak on the situation that
> these company's face:
>
>
> Subject: Re: [sharechat] Eldercare
> From: "Colin Ross" <ceejaynz@xtra.co.nz>
> Date: Fri, 8 Sep 2000 17:19:09 +1200
>
> --------------------------------------------------------------------------
--
> ----
>
> I've been pondering on this subject for a while now, and would like to
share
> my thoughts with the group.
> I have recently retired from over 40 years experience as a retail Pharmacy
> Proprietor. During that time, I had a good deal to do with Retirement
homes
> and similar facilities.
> There has been a long period  in the past where  government subsidies
> provided profitable opportunities for Retirement Home providers.
> However, during the more  recent past the generosity of these provisions
> have been reduced to the point where margins have become very tight, many
> operators have been forced out of business, and the survivors have needed
to
> become very "efficient" which has often  resulted in inferior services,
> employment of cheapest possible labour, and a general squeeze on
contractor,
> Doctors, Pharmacists, etc..
> Eventually, there may well be a market for User-pays services, but right
> now, the public has a contrary mind set.
> In my opinion, the Corporate providers will have their work cut out to
> become profitable. Hard working owner operators are managing to prosper,
but
> they need to be very good at it and extremely hard working.
> I am certainly very pleased to have extricated myself from this
quagmire...
> Ceejay
>
> -------------------------------------------------
>
> Still though, even though the situation doesn't look the best for
> retirement-care, I find Eldercare's change of business direction
interesting
> (as detailed in their announcement - check Phil's post to have a read).
It
> means that the management realise that if they are to become a profitable
> and strong company, they have to diversify.
>
> This could be positive in the long term and, if you are a long term
holder,
> you may well be rewarded.
>
> Best Regards
>
> Benjamin Dutton
> (Disc. do not hold ELD)
>
>
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Mark Hubbard" <mhubbard@es.co.nz>
> To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
> Sent: Tuesday, December 05, 2000 1:29 PM
> Subject: Re: [sharechat] Re: Eldecare
>
>
> >
> > > >No Replies, Someone must have an opinion please.
> > >  , I have Eldecare Shares av..451, I am along term holder,
> > > > this company was a brokers buy some time back is there something I
> don't
> > > > know or is this a great time to top up. Latest price..168 nta is
.22c.
> > > > Comments please.
> >
> >
> > Hi Kelvin
> >
> > Eldercare, Metlifecare, and Ryman all operate in an exceedingly
> competitive
> > area, and growing more so, which would imply pressure on future
earnings.
> > Its also subject to govt. regulation to an uncomfortable extent in my
> > opinion - re subsidies, etc. My personal favourite in this sector is
Ryman
> > (although I have now sold all my shareholdings in this). I like Ryman
> > because they build as well as manage their own resthomes, thus, more
> > diversified revenues, lower cost structure? Also, this company has kept
to
> > all of its profit promises since listing (well largely anyway). Thus, if
> > you're dead set on this sector, perhaps think of Ryman rather than
> > Eldercare - Ryman's shareprice is also down historically.
> >
> > IMHO anyway.
> >
> >
>
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>
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