Forum Archive Index - November 2000

["G Stolwyk" <stolwyk@wave.co.nz>]

Hugh,                                                                                      I was amiss in calling a friend 'Rubicon'; it has created confusion in the chat columns as contributors thought I was referring to a Fletcher company. Sorry about that!

 

 Another scenario which I omitted in my contribution of Nov 12, but becomes more likely as the price of ordinary shares is falling, is, that a raid for majority control of this ordinary share class could occur at any time! Much depends on the number of global competitors for FFS.

 

Ideally,such a player would wait till these shares are ex rights. After having obtained majority control; they could then sit back and  buy out the preference shares over a number of years.         They would have a captive market: I understand that holders do not get much in the way of dividends.

 

Whatever the timing or any valuations -realistic or not- it could circumvent any official offers to the Fletcher Challenge Board!!

 

And that is exactly what at least one player wants!  

 

The share price fell this morning to 28 cents, partly because of a bad day on the Dow.

 

Further discussion of any litigation or strong criticism by any global firm could perhaps bring this price down by a couple of cents.

It is difficult to predict what a player would have to pay and whether there are any counter offers.

 

Will it exceed 60 cents? Some investors may think that now is a good time to buy.                                                    Most holders of rights will hope that a stand in the market will be made at an early time: It would boost the rights and preference share values. 

 

At this stage, the proposed legislation on take-overs has not gone into effect,I think.                                                Therefore, it is likely that any global player will already survey any large holders and perhaps pay them more than the small investor!

   

Hugh, I hope that present investors will at least retrieve some of their losses!!

 

We don't want to monopolize this chat site, let others contribute while we take a rest! 

 

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I am not a holder of FFS shares. Contents of this email are my opinion. Developments may cause a change of this opinion.

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