Forum Archive Index - November 2000

["nick" <acummin@es.co.nz>]

     Well we knew october was gonna be a shocker, and

so it proved.  Oil price rises, conflict in middle east, nasdaq under

pressure etc, etc

         I was happily riding this storm content in the knowledge that the

fletcher stocks were going to come to the rescue.   How wrong can one be.

   I have been buying up building for the last year or so expecting a nice little

return when they were sold. 

 Then when  forests started falling from 80c midway through the month

i snapped some of them up at 62c.  Next day WHAM 

        Having had time to recover from the shock,  i am content to hold

building as i feel long term i will end up ahead. The dividends are nice

and they will be more attractive to buyers once they stand alone.

       Forests on the other hand make me very nervous. They are my big

blunder of the year.  Just when all stocks are cheap and bargains are everywhere,

i have to blow my available cash on forests and see it half in value within a few

days.  To make matters worse they expect us to cough up even more money.

     Whatt makes me really nervous is that after we have paid up for our new

preference shares,  there will be some more bad news, citic will still be annoying

us to death and there are probably a few other sceletons in the cupboard that the board

have deperatly hidden from us.

                          On the bright side we are now into november and today my portfolio

had its best day in a while, not one of my 10 stocks fell.   Restaurant brands and

contact energy are leading me out of trouble. Nufarm look good (wheres my divi)

  Guinness peat is very solid and dependable, frucor are doing fine and carter holt (just bought)

should be good for some kind of rise.  Breirleys will be due to go back to 40c +

     which leaves the dregs  , Telecom (bought 7.30) building and forests.

          Hopefully telecom will recover, building will too eventually, and nice divi

coming next week, which just leaves forests.  Hopefully will be able to exit in one piece

shortly after the rights issue.

                Feeling more optimistic now the month has finished. Next august/ sept remind me

to sell all my shares!!

 

  nick