Forum Archive Index - September 2000

["Sam the Man" <sammac108@hotmail.com>]

Hi team

 

I posted a note on the message boards about power company trading a couple of weeks ago.

Basically, CEN can't make much profit in wet years (like this year and last year) because there os too much cheap hydro power around and Contact is mainly expensive thermal power.  Contact also have to go through some major hoops to get resource consent renewals for their hydro stations in Otago, geothermals in Taupo and also some of their other gas powered plants.  This is an expensive exercise with heaps of negativity attached.  For example, Contact just shelled out 6.8 million for flood control on the Clutha River to assuage the locals and help get their consents.

 

Therefore, I don't expect CEN to go very far in the medium term  I'd BUY next April when their price is $2.15 or lower, and HOLd for about 12-24 months in the hope of a dry year + power crisis. 

 

Hope this helps

 

Sam

----- Original Message -----

From: Philip Robinson

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Thursday, 14 September 2000 15:39

Subject: Re: [sharechat] CEN price at 30Sept

Ben & Warner $3.00 by the end of the year is a huge call IMHO,

 

this share has excess sentiment times two and I can only see $2.80 at most by 31.12.00. Have you noticed that buying back 15 million shares has seen the price go absolutely nowhere, I will admit that it did rise and I sold out at 2.82, loosing about $100 - dividends, but it then sank and Paul Anthony and his millions have left the company so I don't see alot of short or medium term up side here, would be interested in the thoughts of others.

 

Phil

----- Original Message -----

From: Ben Dutton

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Thursday, September 14, 2000 2:45 PM

Subject: Re: [sharechat] CEN price at 30Sept

Roy - I've been watching CEN with an eagle eye over the past couple of weeks.

 

A couple of factors intrigue me.  First, as you say, the buyback.  Second, as the negative sentiment over their latest result subsides we may see more people who view CEN as a long-term play buying in.  Third, with our low dollar, would this not be the time for Edison Mission Energy to make their long-awaited move?  Or are they not interested in increasing their stake anymore?

 

I'd go with Warner's pick of $3 by the end of the year. 

 

Best Regards

 

Benjamin Dutton

 

----- Original Message -----

From: Roy

To: sharechat@sharechat.co.nz

Sent: Thursday, September 14, 2000 1:26 PM

Subject: [sharechat] CEN price at 30Sept

If I was a gambling man I would put my money on $2.63 or better!

Why?

a) Investment in buyback.?

b) Curret CEO leaves?

c) End of their financial year?

So what do you pundits think?

"I Trade therefore I am"
Zen Trader philosophy

Roy