Forum Archive Index - August 2000

["G.P.Thompson" <gp.thompson@bitworks.co.nz>]

Simon
As one who is holding and following this stock I offer the following.
Basic info on all, NZ stocks can be found on the Global register end of day
share prices Statistics #4 http://www.globalregister.co.nz/share.htm which
quotes 854,507,897     shares  on issue.
The company also has a web site which gives the latest financial information
http://www.fcl.co.nz/99_annual_report/interim_review/forest/f_per_share.htm

The financials must be ready for updating for the June 2000 results by now.
On the Dec 1999 results the NTA is quoted as $1.42.
This must be a target figure for setting the sale value provided nothing
untoward has happened in the meantime to undermine the intrinsic value of
the company.
As to whether it will be sold and when we can only guess. There have been a
few false dawns over the last 4 months over the timing of a sale. However
the resignation of the CEO  in May must be a sure pointer as is the
resumption of debt repayment from July as described in Senescall's column.
The company has consistently said that It wanted to be looking at it in late
August ( i.e. now) but also said it wanted the complete group  restructure
completed by year end 2000. Many punters have been betting on a FEG sale in
the previous week. Another intangible is the resolution of the dispute with
CITIC. Recall that  a suggestion that this was imminent resulted in a terse
denial by CITIC last month. It is possible that FLB of FEG could jump the
queue however this would not necessarily be bad for the share price as it
would reconfirm the company's commitment to the restructure.
Personally I think the recent fortunes of FEG make it very desirable to hold
now  thus the focus will be on FFS and a complete exit from the forestry
business..
GPT
----- Original Message -----
From: "Stott" <bincqs@ihug.co.nz>
To: <sharechat@sharechat.co.nz>
Sent: Monday, August 14, 2000 12:54 PM> interested in this stock's VALUE
rather than performance.
>
Subject: [sharechat] On the value of FFS


> Good afternoon folks
> Long time reader (congrats on 1 year Ben and co.), first time writer!
>
> I would like to start a discussion on Fletcher Forest (FFS).  I am

> It would appear that very shortly the company will be sold....
>
> "Merrill Lynch is handling this process, also in its final stages."
>  - Fletcher rejig into last stage, By GEOFF SENESCALL 9/8/00
>  (http://www.herald.co.nz/storydisplay.cfm?storyID=147166)
>
> While the company carries a lot of debt, the "Net Assets backing each
> share" (Is this similiar to Net Tangiable Assets - NTA?) in the last
annual
> report was US$0.73 (NZ$1.39) (There was no mention in the annual report of
> how many shares have been issued, does anybody know the total number?).
>
> The stock is hanging around NZ$0.84 (on pretty good volume) today - a
major
> discount to the assets backing.  It would appear that if the company was
> going to sale for NZ$1.25+ per share, then a nice 50+% gain could be made
> (if one is patient).  But I feel like I am missing something here.  I
would
> appreciate others thoughts.
>
> Also if Fletcher Forests is not going to be sold (which seems unlikely),
> its balance sheet will need to be recapitalised.  This will involve either
> bringing a new shareholder on board or selling assets.
> How would this scenario effect the shares value?
>
> Yours
> Simon
>
>
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