Forum Archive Index - June 2000

["Nigel Bree" <nbree@kcbbs.gen.nz>]

hugh webber wrote:
> [...re Telecom...] Other Telcos around the world are in similar
> difficulties.

Many plain Telcos, yes. But then after all, almost everything that they do
is well and truly commoditized by the time the second tier take a bite. The
first tier, those who have been and remain (albeit in a different fashion,
with their research arms like Lucent floated) at the forefront of the actual
_technical_ innovation are more secure.

> Frankly I would like to get out of residential property before this
> [...population shrinkage...] starts happening in a substantial way
> and take advantage of successive landlords at successively
> lower rents and higher quality housing as valuations plunge.

I think a *huge* question remains over the future of urban sprawls like
for instance the Auckland one in the kind of term you are considering.
A century ago, Telsa and Marconi were fighting over long-distance radio
communications and the early major metropolitan electric generation and
distribition systems were being built. 100 years ago, what of Henry Ford
and the car? The future one hundred years hence will be filled with
change too; the electronic infrastructure we are seeing built now is
still far from its full flourish.

Change, and fashion, and the need to replace ageing infrastructure will
ensure opportunities in property for as long as I can forsee. The center
of growth may shift from urban areas to rural ones, for instance - I
certainly don't regret abandoning Auckland for nowheresville (although
as a software developer my physical location has never been very
material).

Brian Gale wrote:
> Is anyone doing any good out there at the moment (apart from the
> bright boys trading on the NASDAQ) ?

I'm doing great, thanks. But then, I don't get my income from trading at
all, and consider most of NZ's business community to be self-serving first
and foremost so the malaise being whipped up by the likes of Fran O'Sullivan
isn't upsetting me either.

> Could be one way to get rid of the motley crew in Wellington ?

That motley crew - who have their share of duds, to be sure - cannot in any
conscience be considered any worse than the the preceding lot, possessed of
an idea vacuum comparable to intergalactic space and quite ethically
bankrupt to boot.

Jim Insley wrote:
> Hugh.   What IS the reason for this drop in population?

You'd have to choose between the rise of the oral contraceptive and the rise
of the middle class (and the related consumer culture) as the largest group
in society. Both are weighty influences, historically recent, and have fed
upon each other (so a choice between them is probably a false dichotomy).




----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
To remove yourself from this list, please use the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.shtml.