Forum Archive Index - April 2000

["Brett & Leeanne Phillips" <bret-lil@ihug.co.nz>]

Hi Everyone,

Hope you've all had an exciting week watching the markets go up and down.
Fletcher Forests has being showing good trends, other than Monday.

The recent comment regarding Fletcher Forests reaching some sort of an
purchase agreement, if correct, will only mean further interest in the share
over the next few weeks. This will seem like  'about time'  for most holders
of this share, as it's price has dropped steadily over the last year or so,
with only the occassional movement upwards to keep investors interested.

Articles have indicated that there has been several companies carrying out
due diligence on Forests, which also suggests it is definitely the next
division of the Fletcher Group to be sold after the recent FLP
announcements. While there has been comments regarding certain companies
having the inside running, it will be surprising, although not impossible,
to see an announcement being made in the next week.

A recent media release by FFS spokeswoman Ginny Radford said "several
players had completed the early stages of due diligence, with a reduced
number of parties entering phase two of the process". Also Fletcher Chairman
Roderick Deane indicated that there was no predetermined order for sorting
the three remaining divisions, but they were concentrating on the forestry
division, which would have some complexities to overcome first.

Fletcher Forestry, will be looking for a shareholder to solve the current
debt problem or to purchase outright. Media speculation is that most of the
bidders originate from US or European interests with huge dollars backing
them. It has also been suggested that Forests could reach a sale price of
around $1.30-$1.40. I understand the present book value is about $1.05 per
share, showing the share is heavily discounted at present, especially
considering possible bidders are lining up.

Whether a sale is to be announced in the next week or within the next few
months seems irrelevant, as surely if Mr Deane's secures a buyer at anywhere
near the above prices, investors stand to gain considerably if they purchase
at present levels. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the
potential 50-80% gains, in what will be a relatively short period if present
indications are anything to go by. This of course may be 'jumping the gun',
but whatever happens I'm sure FFS shareholders will come out of this
scenerio a lot better off than they have been for months. I for one expect
to see the price climb and with the recent volumes traded, other investors
seem to agree.

Happy Investing !

Cheers Brett




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