Forum Archive Index - March 2000

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

Some thought provoking stuff Snoopy, I'm quite happy to concede on
a lot of it and you've obviously done your homework. And the Air NZ
saga seems to have nearly as many twists and turns to it as Telecom
with the Singapore Airlines buys Air NZ stake rumour today. 
The part that still worries me though is that when a small cut price
operator
starts as it has in the past, even with only one chartered plane it seems
to be
able to start a price war that cuts Air NZ prices over a wide spectrum. We
also
have the oil price surge at the mo which can't be helping but its the
discount
competition that is a worry....what happens if Virgin comes in, if a
recapitalised 
domestic Ansett goes for more market share. The jury's still out for a
while I guess.
I think there are some growing 3rd liners nibbling away, can't remember the
names.
I did do very well out of Air NZ before as a recovery stock so I'm curious
on how it goes.
At the moment Air NZ can only do as well as Qantas and SAS will let it as
they can
compete much more fiercely.

On AIA, I think its probably a different situation from Ports of Auckland
because as 
you noted, passengers want immediacy and convenience. I did travel from
Ardmore
to Paraparumu once as an experiment to go to a conference at Paraparaumu to
avoid
the Wgtn to Paraparaumu leg but the flight took ages and there was lots of
turbulence,
not recommended. I can't really see anyone getting town planning permission
for an
international airport close to Auckland which is why I think its a classic
Buffett consumer
monopoly. I see the Auckland area has real economic growth of 5% predicted
for next year
and with 1 million people there plus the hinterland down to say Taupo, plus
one of the two
main gateways into and out of NZ its hard to bypass. I'd like to look back
in say 5 years
and say how has it grown (incl the retail and land and other developments)
and I think it
will be amazingly solid compound interest growth which will render todays
price and
any Changi offer very cheap.

regards,
Hugh

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