Forum Archive Index - March 2000

["hugh webber" <hugh.webber@clear.net.nz>]

well folks I thought I'd make time to do something I haven't 
previously got around to, an across the board look at NZSE
stocks. Unfortunately Sharechat seems to spend 99% of its
time discussing 5% of the stocks (is that too generous?) and
some of it is in terms of scuttlebutt - which I admit is interesting
and sometimes useful when its correct but I'd hate to make decisions
on the basis of that alone unsupported by facts. The vast majority
of the NZSE stocks never get discussed at all. Sad but true.

Looking at the sharetable in The Press today I picked the 40 shares
that are at or near their lows over the last year. I left out one or two 
complete losers, one or two which are essentially overseas stocks
but I left in those about which I know nothing in the hope that others 
could supply comment. There are 148 shares in the table and I would
point out that I've left out the Unlisted Market (lack of quick easy data)
and I think there are quite a few companies which don't operate even
on the Unlisted Market but which you can buy by writing to the company
secretary like Summerfruit Orchards. (no, I'm not advocating Summerfruit
its just an example).

Air NZ A. Having a cash issue which Kiwis hate. Ansett I think is in strike
problems. Buffett analyses airlines as commodity sellers (output only
differentiated by price, no or low barriers to entry) and won't touch them.
Air continues to get outmuscled by Qantas and Singapore etc. Any cut
price operator large or small can force big drops in ticket prices. I
wouldn't
touch them these days.

Arthur Barnett. Dunedin mostly, and Chch, just completing big building &
revitalisation initiatives. Is down because of this work in progress. Could
be
an interesting little flutter as it claws up again.

BIL. Nuff said already I think. Until it gets rid of Thistle Hotels (UK),
Air NZ and 
Molokai Ranch any initiative it makes is totally lost in the huge
unproductive
overhang of non performing assets. I prefer to be marked by the markets on
this one
and yesterday the market said they were worth 36 cents compared to their yr
low
of 35 cents.

Capital Properties. Best yield on the market I think. Due for a 57 cents
call on 30
June which is depressing the price. Good quality government properties 99%
tenanted in Wgtn. Recently took over Shortland Properties in Auckland 90%
tenanted. If you want yield/income that is probably sustainable this is it.
(sorry,
I'm bisassed, I've bought heaps incl chunks at 32/33 cents).

CDL Hotels NZ. If they are still hotels then they have the hotel disease
same as 
Thistle in the UK. Probably due to commodisation - any improvement and
someone 
puts up new hotels and/or converts office blocks to hotels. Things like
Americas Cup
only last small part of the yr even though they're high profile.

CDL Investments. Don't know them, any comment?

Designer Textiles. A sad case, I thought they were being taken over or
going under but
I haven't kept up with the play. Any comment?

Evergreen Forests. Forests unfortunately are commodities altho they're on
some sort
of recovery at the mo. Evergreen has a tie up with one or two larger US
investment outfits
who have put money into it and it has been expanding over recent years
quite strongly.
Anyone know when they start cutting in a big way? could be interesting with
a perfectly
timed entry and exit.

FCL Building. I suppose they are dragged down by the uncertainty of when
the letter stocks
will be untied. They have been recommended a lot at rather higher levels as
a good bet to go
with the NZ economy recovery.

FCL Forests. Some comments from Evergreen and FCL Building apply. Anyone
know when
they start cutting in a big way? There was the comment that they were
actually the easiest
of the letter stocks to extricate and we did have the debate over debt
levels which turned out to
be reasonable. Interesting technology tie in with Genesis and smal
investment in Genesis. 

Goodman Fielder. Essentially overseas now. Makes trendy comments about
getting into Asia,
management reorganisation, growth, but the data always sadly lags the talk.


Guinnees Peat. One of the few that has been discussed a bit. Its not just
Sir Ron Brierley but
he has some other bright cookies on board such as Dr Gary Weiss
(Disclosure: I used to play 
soccer with him at Uni.) 1% debt, net conservative asset values of over
$2.00 a share vs market
price of $1.40. Talk about throwing pearls before swine....esp given its
track record and the increasing
number of plays its in and succeeding at. Only the E-tech tulip mania could
do this to it....

Hallenstein Glasson. Good management, expanding soundly into Australia via
a successful beachhead
in Melbourne. Sorted out its buying problems. Is occasionally recommended.
Good track record of 
continuing steady growth and paying decent dividends. Good yield/income
stock for the 20% of investors
who usually get trampled on in sharechat.

Hellaby. Has done some good things and is soundly managed,Tur Borren &.
Probably suffers from being a conglomerate
when sharp integrated focus is now the thing. Unfortunately recalls Westmex
and Russell Goward the hero 
from IEL who plunged into shoes in the Uk and sank without trace. I think
people may be more excited when
it exits Hannahs and finds some more trendy investments. Although boring
investments which make lots of
money are preferable.  

Infratil. I have a small holding but I must admit I haven't kept up with
the play and why they sank from $1.48 to
$1.13 this year. Maybe something to do with Labour and its regulation
plans? Very good management and track
record. I'd be interested to hear what, if anything has gone wrong or is it
just missing the E and .dot. Maybe Infratil@tech would do the trick?

Well, there's probably a limit on how much one posting will take so I'm off
with the dog and will do some more later.
Wonder if there's any good investments in dogfood...  



----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
To remove yourself from this list, please us the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html.