Forum Archive Index - March 2000

[Chris <autotron@ihug.co.nz>]

In one of the recent daily email news from sharechat there was an url to a
major paper, article about expected .5% rate increase from a few days. I think!

If true, this ought to have downside on FFS. Real U.S. money won't reappear
till there is bottoming of NZ interest rates (that could be years away) and
or the NZ dollar bottoms (no sign yet?)

You bought today Derek at 53; I sold 120k today at 53, and my BET is that
FFS will be available for a good portion of tommorrow at 52.

Cheers 
Chris








At 06:34 PM 3/7/00 +1300, you wrote:
>I think your right about Genesis Hugh, the gain that FFS is likely to get
>from 
>Genesis is more likely to come from their research into trees than the Genesis
>bottom line.
>
>from the FFS half year -
>>The debt-to-book capitalisation ratio improved to 35% at 31/12/99, from
>37%at 06/99, and >40% at 12/98.
>
>So it looks like they have some debt, but does it justify the discount to NTA
>that the share now has?
>
>NTA 140.66 
>Price .53
>EPS 7.86 
>
>(I bought some today)
>
>Bye
>Derek
>
>
>
>At 05:59 PM 3/7/00 +1300, you wrote:
>>I would hate to disappoint anyone but my speculation is that 9% of Genesis
>>is absolutely dwarfed by the size of FFS and that therefore even a doubling
>>of Genesis would very little impact on the FFS shareprice. Assuming an
>>informed
>>and intelligent market, which may be a big ask. People may just get swept
>>away
>>again. In an earlier discussion on FFS I made the comment that I thought I
>>had seen
>>media comment that FFS had high debt. This was rubbished by someone else
>>who said it was FCL Paper who had the high debt. However I have the
>>sneaking
>>suspicion that when BIL exercised its put option on the big NZ Govt Forests
>>in
>>Central Nth Island (what was it called again) that the debt in taking that
>>up, which
>>would have been very considerable, would have logically ended up with FFS.
>>
>>cheers,
>>Hugh
>>
>>----------
>>> From: Wedde, John <john.wedde@cit.ac.nz>
>>> To: 'sharechat@sharechat.co.nz'
>>> Subject: RE: [sharechat] Genesis R&D - FFS
>>> Date: Tuesday, 7 March 2000 14:29
>>> 
>>> Further to my earlier message here is info received from Mark Harris,
>>> Manager, Investor Relations at Fletcher Forests:
>>> 
>>> "FFS owns 727,000 Genesis shares, or 9% based on the shares on issue at
>>> Dec98.  As a % this has probably dropped slightly this year, diluted by
>>> Genesis staff options, but I'm not actually sure what shares they issued
>>in
>>> 1999.
>>> The book value of the investment has not been disclosed.  Sufficient to
>>say
>>> its well below market.  The shares were purchased at the time we started
>>> funding the Radiata gene-mapping work by Genesis around 1995, and are
>>just
>>> held at cost."
>>> Whether 9% is a significant holding I guess depends on, amongst other
>>> things,  the relative size of this parcel compared to other major
>>> shareholdings. It would be interesting to know also whether Fletchers
>>will
>>> be increasing their stake when Genesis list on the main board. I didn't
>>ask
>>> this question but doubt, if I had, that I would have got a definitive
>>> answer.
>>> Cheers
>>> 
>>> 
>>> John Wedde BCA, MA, Senior Lecturer, Business Communication
>>> Programme Leader, NZ Diploma in Business
>>> Central Institute of Technology
>>> Box 40 740 Upper Hutt, New Zealand
>>> EMail: John.Wedde@cit.ac.nz <mailto:John.Wedde@cit.ac.nz> 
>>> Phone: 5276397 EXT. 6747 Mobile 025843729
>>> 
>>> &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
>>> 
>>>          \\\ ///
>>>          (O O)
>>> ---ooO-(_)-Ooo---
>>> 
>>> 
>>> &&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>> 
>>>
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>>
>
>-----------------------------------
>Derek Watt
>http://members.tripod.com/DKWatt/
>-----------------------------------
>
>
>
>
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