Forum Archive Index - February 2000

[frank <frank.fernandez@xtra.co.nz>]

It was mentioned last week on Sharechat that with a stock like AQL, one
does not have any benchmarks to evaluate it against - and this is a
valid point. One can only evaluate its potential to rise above its
current share price through the information we have about the stock, and
through our own analysis of that information.

It is common knowledge now who the principal stakeholders in AQL are,
what the company's asset divestment plans are - but we do not know its
future direction apart from its intention to sell the balance of its
holdings "to accumulate cash for investing in other business".

However, what can also be determined (through an analysis of the
information already released by AQL and Bliss Corp) is the probable
financial returns to AQL through the divestment of its assets and the
recent issue of private share placements. To try and eliminate some of
the confusion surrounding the possible financial position of the
eventual cashed-up AQL 'shell', detailed below is an analysis of the
publicly available information on the matter:

1. In return for the sales of its Shanghai  and Pusan (Korea) assets,
AQL will acquire 125 million Bliss million shares at an issue price of
A$0.14 (NZ$0.178).  
                +This equates to a total value of NZ$22.25million.

2. AQL has indicated that it will sell all or part of these shares to
repair a NZ$10 
million loan taken in January 1999 at 6.5%p.a. interest to fund the
Shanghai and Pusan assets. 
                -Expected cost to repay loan (plus interest) is about NZ$10.65
million.

3. AQL has, since the middle of January 2000, issued private placements
of 21 million shares (10m at 18c, 5m at 18c, 3m at 16.5c and 3m at
0.16c)
                +Total revenue from these placements is NZ$3.67 million.

4. AQL can, without shareholder approval, issue a further 1.82 million
shares as a private or public placement.
                +Total value at a conservative 18c price (seeing the stock 
finished
up               last Friday at 19.2c) would be $0.32 million.

5. AQL's 15% interest in the Seoul Ocean Aquarium project will be sold
to Oceanis subject to AQL shareholder approval on 28 February.
                +Total value: No information for  this to be determined.

6. Last November, AQL purchased 19.9% of Bliss which was onsold to
Oceanis. It is highly likely this was done at a profit.
                +Total value: No information for this to be determined.

7. Current funds held by AQL from all of its operations.
                +Total value: No information for this to be determined.

Financial Summary:
>From the above information, we know that AQL's current known debt is
about $10.65 million. We also know that if all of its Bliss shares are
sold off, AQL will receive at least $26.24 million from asset sales and
private share placements. After paying off the $10.65million debt,
$15.59 million remains as known available funds for AQL to invest in
other ventures.  This however does not include the additional funds:
· From the revenue AQL has or is currently receiving from its ongoing
operations 
· From the onselling of its 19.9% stakeholding in Bliss 
· From the expected future sale of its 15% interest in the Seoul Ocean
Aquarium   
  project. 

All of these can reasonably be expected to increase the final total
funds available for AQL to invest in other ventures - as would any
future placements of shares (for more  fund-raising) if approved by
shareholders. In comparison to the likes of ITC, Strathmore, Spectrum
etc (to name a few) who started their redirected paths with hardly
anything on their balance sheets, it does appear that AQL (on closer
inspection) will have substantial disposable funds to launch itself onto
a new platform.

As there has been much comment on Sharechat in the last week about AQL,
I hope the above financial information will be useful for readers in
their deliberations on the stock. 

Cheers,

Frank Fernandez

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