Forum Archive Index - February 2000

[Phil Eriksen <phil@acepay.co.nz>]

Robert Nottage wrote:
> 
> With regards to AQL, it seems that there is the "pro",
> the "anti", the "anti but I am still holding my shares
> just in case" camps.
> Whichever way you look at it, there are so many
> possible permutations and interpretations of the
> available information - depending on which camp you
> are in.
> For those who have AQL shares, all the best for a
> profitable stock sometime in the future.
> For those who haven't got AQL shares, you have got
> your reasons for not investing in the stock and good
> luck in your other investments.
> For the "anti but still holding", maybe some
> positivity (as Les indicated)would not go amiss in the
> current dreary and stifling NZ stockmarket scene.
> Otherwise sell up and join the anti brigade.
> Like Les, fed-up with the negativity and just
> expressing my views.

I don't really see the "negativity" that people seem to be noticing.  To
me, if a company is buying/selling/restructuring, if they have no real
success/results/profits on the scorecard, if their shareholder list
contains people who talk up stocks/move around holdings at a frenetic
pace/are involved in share issues that hurt small holders, well, how in
hell can you possibly be positive?  I don't think too many people in
here are what i'd call negative people - the mere fact you are willing
to risk any of your money in any share suggests some confidence in the
future.

I think the key problem with a stock like AQL is its impossible to be
positive.  You can't say "well, their profits were X, their product Y
was established 5 years ago, competes against Y and has so and so market
share.  Their main advantage over competitors is W.  Their business has
grown at X%, while their share price only at Y%, given this, and the
strong underlying business, i think the shares are really worth A and
will buy some."  You just cannot do that.  Theres so much mucking
around, and rumours, and speculation that even the people who hold
shares and expect them to go up couldn't be truly positive.  In my mind,
"being positive", as opposed to blind faith, is when you can evaluate
the information in front you, come out with a clear answer, and be able
to say "thats all good, im in".  How one could come to *any* clear
answer after evaluating AQL completely escapes me.

If I had to name one word to sum up the general feeling on sharechat, it
isn't "negative" or "positive" - its "confused".


Cheers,
Phil

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