Forum Archive Index - January 2000

[Nigel McCarter <n.mccarter@clear.net.nz>]

Flat markets - 
Talk about a flat NZ market is not totally true, though I agree with the
substance of 
the NBR article and Mike's comments.
But there are several NZ companies that have been producing very good
capital and dividend returns, (and never forget the latter) far in excess
of NZSE40 over the last few years.
For example

Michael Hill Jeweller
Ebos
Radio Pacific aka Radioworks
Cavalier
Warehouse
a couple of the banks

The interesting thing about which companies are doing well is the sectors
they are in
Retail
Health 
Finance.

Anything to do with commodities or farming is as flat as pancake or worse
and manufacturing, PDL is awful, and NPX is not much better though I think
watch this spot.

I  agree investors should look offshore, but in which case, it  makes sense
to opt for value, long-term, bigger company strategy since it is near
impossible to keep up with the news in a sector like IT.  For example, if
you are chasing IT in OZ, the Bulletin's Speculator column recommended
Davnet last year at 21 cents, by the time the news got to NZ the share
price had already jumped.  Macquaraie Bank would be have been a much better
and safer selection.

Last I still keep NZ shares for high dividends and imputation credits.  the
offshore holdings also have disadvantages tax wise that I still haven't
worked through, so Ikeep the holding at about 50:50


At 10:32 PM 1/28/00 +1300, you wrote:
>Michael Corleone wrote
>
>There is a great article in today's NBR entitled "Stock Exchange fails
>to address punter crisis".
>Between 1991 and 1998 $13 billion of value for shareholders has been
>destroyed. This during the biggest stockmarket boom in history........etc
>
>When Michael speaks you a show a him some respect ,capiche ,or you finish up
>feedin da fishes.
>
>Unfortunately he is right, the only life in this market at the moment is in
>these pathetic little wannabe tech stocks ramped up by a clique of sleazy
>get rich merchants who are taking the punters along for a one way ride.
>There has been a lot of discussion this week ( and I must sat it is
>refreshing to read some serious debate about a real company) in this  forum
>about NUF and its falling share price. Nobody however has talked about the
>obvious reason for its decline - its name. Why call a company "Nufarm" -
>boring boring! If they had called it Inferon.com or Fernz.net the punters
>would have been flocking and the share price would have been at least $10 by
>now. Yes I can quickly trivialise a serious debate.
>
>BTW does anybody see the similarity between the current tech frenzy and the
>NZ  oil companies boom of the mid seventies? They were great days - for a
>while.
>
>Seriously I believe that any sensible investor should be looking offshore.
>Personally I have reduced my NZ holdings from 80% of my portfolio to 40% in
>the last two years. One of the problems for the NZ market is that everyone
>and especially the fund managers have been doing the same. What has been the
>impact of  this capital movement on the NZSE and the current account.? It,
>together with the lack of interest by overseas instiutonal investors in our
>markets must be a  huge factor in the current malaise. Will this trend
>reverse itself in the near future - I doubt it. We're doomed I tell you!
>
>Having said that I do not intend to reduce my exposure to NZ much further as
>I see our market being reasonably defensive in the event of a correction in
>the US, Europe and Asia.
>
>Has anyone any thoughts about what proportion of say a mildly agressive
>portfolio should be in NZ and what proportion overseas and where?
>
>Cheers
>MikeH
>PS Deep throat is saying today, Sell  NZR at $9.42
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>----------------------------------------------------------------------------
>http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
>To remove yourself from this list, please us the form at
>http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html.
>
>
Nigel McCarter

Shorten the Odds 
The Short Portfolio
Box 23 019 Hamilton
Phone 64 7 858 2429 Fax 64 858 2689
Mobile 025 274 8560

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/          New Zealand's home for market investors
To remove yourself from this list, please us the form at
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/forum.html.